Elle

@centristmum.bsky.social

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Charity worker, mum of two, Lib Dem and naturalised Yorkshire citizen

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Well-known former fireplace salesman Gavin Williamson is beginning his bid for the leadership of the Conservative Party.

All the chat in the Tory leadership seems to be about Jenrick and... I know they elected Truss but they can't be *that* mad can they?

Totally vibes-based theory on the Tory leadership contest They have felt leaderless and abandoned during the campaign. They will vote for the candidate who makes them feel like the grownups are back in charge. I think that means Cleverly.

In international development we sometimes use a type of study called positive deviance to develop project ideas ("why does this lady have the best pigs") and the Tories should definitely do an in-depth positive deviance study on Jeremy Hunt

Reform were kept to single digits in Jeremy Hunt’s constituency, lower than in any adjacent constituency. This probably made the difference in his result. Given Jeremy Hunt isn’t exactly a darling of the right, if I were a Conservative I’d be absorbed right now in how he did that.

I really dislike the assumption that the Gaza independents will all be shit constituency MPs - why on earth would we assume that. No one thought that about the Kidderminster Hospital guy did they? And it's not like all major party MPs are any good at that stuff either is it.

Just realised we only get like two days off before we have to start campaigning in all the council by-elections where the cllr is now an MP and FML

Fact of the day!

UK, national parliament election: in South West Norfolk, the constituency of former Prime Minister Liz Truss (CON~ECR), the swing from CON~ECR to LAB-S&D was the largest ever recorded in a national parliament election. Special election result page: europeelects.eu/uk2024/ #GE2024

Fun election fact from a locked account on twitter: apparently the Lib Dems have printed so many tabloids this election that the country has literally run out of newsprint paper.

Apparently getting an evri message saying my parcel is ready to collect actually means it's not ready and it might be ready tomorrow because of course it does

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Elle

The reason Ed Davey didn't bungie jump during the coalition is that the Cables were less trustworthy back then.

Oh my goodness so much this!

“What we’re seeing in this election is that women’s issues are being framed around the conflict around ‘gender ideology’. A potential interesting finding is how that focus might be crowding out other issues pertaining to women.”

One Party State local councils are a disaster (treatment of residents, but also the article doesn't dig into it but overpaying for work not done on a regular basis with no accountability in the system is... hmmm) www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Lambeth Council refunded £1.5m to 'gagged' leaseholders - BBC Newswww.bbc.co.uk A council has been forcing residents into silence as a condition of them receiving money owed to them.

On the basis of 'Never mind if it's good, can it at least be funny' I am now rooting for this outcome

the most diabolical suggestion i have heard given this reality is Harris/Manchin

Went to a church BBQ this afternoon and two other attendees have just posted in the parents WhatsApp group that their kids have been sick so I guess I'll see you in a few days

I got Covid and couldn't garden for 2 weeks and all my plants were eaten by slugs 😭

Main observation from the doorstep (I've now helped in 6 LD-Con marginals) is that it's really, really hard to squeeze and it takes a long time. The difference between long-term and newer targets is enormous. Wouldn't be surprised to see higher-than-expected Labour shares in some newer targets.

Did the Labour candidate who bet on his opponent actually do anything wrong? Isn't that allowed?

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Elle

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Andrew Hickey

I am glad he is not going to be locked up in American prison for the espionage charges. He didn't deserve that. I am sad he's not currently in Swedish prison for the rapes he committed. He does deserve that.

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Elle

Amid ongoing civil war Sudan is facing the largest famine the world has seen for at least forty years / searing by Joshua Kraze, Kholood Khair and Raga Makawi www.nybooks.com/online/2024/...

Sudan Starves | Joshua Craze, Kholood Khair, Raga Makawiwww.nybooks.com Ninety-five percent of Sudan’s total grain production occurs in November and December. It should be a time of plenty. In the southeastern state of Blue

Re @deargodwhatnow.bsky.social and your question about why the Tories didn't have a plan for the Lib Dems... I've just remembered it's something they used to be doing, they had a Lib Dem Unit at CCHQ, the head of it lost his council seat to a Lib Dem in 2022. So it's even weirder!

If you take people for granted long enough eventually they leave you, usually while you resort to undignified pleading and threats. True with Labour in the red wall, true with the Tories in rural areas, and true with bad marriages since the dawn of time.

The Conservative party's final fortnight pivot to 'please, farmers, come back and vote for us' is so fascinating to me, because it's a) obviously the right call but b) was obviously the right call at the start of the campaign, the year, and indeed Sunak's premiership. Why didn't they do it earlier?

I am very happy for these people and I'm sure they're all perfectly pleasant but I really don't need this as a push notification

This is probably my favourite politics story of this parliament. It must eat him up *so badly*

I wrote exactly this after the by-election - a massively overlooked punchline to the Uxbridge referendum. itcouldbesaid.substack.com/p/it-could-b...

It Could Be Said #43 Boris Screwed Borisitcouldbesaid.substack.com Boris Johnson Is A Liddle Scaredy-Cat

The other thing I've learned is that landlords are asking for automatic annual rent increases of RPI which wasn't the case when I rented previously and also is definitely something Excel would flag as circular logic.

I'm in the process of renting out my house and moving into a rented house in a different area and... I wasn't exactly *surprised* by the difference in how the two sets of estate agents treat me, but it has still been quite radicalising

Okay when I said that the first illegal betting guy should have done corruption properly and just got his spouse to do it that was a joke and not an actual piece of advice!

Tory candidate in gambling probe married to party campaign chief https://www.ft.com/content/351db92a-9ee3-4516-a5e5-5c901ba0e9a3

Tory candidate in gambling probe married to party campaign chiefwww.ft.com Laura Saunders, wife of director of campaigning Tony Lee, is being investigated over an election-related bet

A colleague just admitted shock that political betting markets are a thing and if the Tories somehow ruin this nice little earner for us they can get in the sodding sea

Anyone else see this and think for a moment that it was about Rishi Sunak?

Labour under pressure to be more radical about reforming private renting

Labour under pressure to be more radical about reforming private rentingwww.theguardian.com Campaigners fear current plans will allow landlords to find new ways to evict tenants if party wins power

I've got Covid and I'm bored, what's good on netflix or prime or iPlayer right now? It can't be too serious.

I'm not sure there's any people in the world that deserve their rulers less than the people of Sudan deserve theirs. Tragedy upon tragedy upon tragedy

The present situation in Sudan is terrible, and there is a real risk of famine on a massive scale: “We’ve seen mortality projections estimating that in excess of 2.5 million people, about 15% of the population in Darfur and Kordofan – the hardest hit regions – could die by the end of September,”

‘We need the world to wake up’: Sudan facing world’s deadliest famine in 40 yearswww.theguardian.com Millions face disaster as Sudanese army and RSF accused of using food access as a weapon in on-going war