Emmasrandomthoughts

the Big Kenny Rogers Fan

JD Vance?

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The right has a long history of attacking--by all available means--all organized power centers of left politics. This is why opposition to labor has been core conservative dogma for a century. The left's inability to reciprocate is part of their structural weakness vis-a-vis the right

Can you imagine how much Republicans and right wing media outlets would lose their shit if reporters were on a social platform led by a Dem megadonor who actively promoted the far left? They'd go on a crusade. Media outlets would leave or never even have started.

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Matthew Downhour

Fed should cut just to spite him

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Donald Trump warns US Fed chair not to cut rates before the electionwww.ft.com Ex-president says he would let Jay Powell finish term at central bank if he was ‘doing the right thing’

Trump wants to push down upon the head of labor the hard money crown of thorns. Literally the original anti-populist position https://www.liberalcurrents.com/stop-legitimizing-the-far-rights-narratives-with-the-label-populism/

Donald Trump warns US Fed chair not to cut rates before the election https://www.ft.com/content/11bc931f-5c5e-4e3c-9ceb-9bdca25430ad

Stop Legitimizing the Far Right’s Narratives with the Label ‘Populism’www.liberalcurrents.com Since 2016, to hear the media tell it, the world’s democracies have been faced with a deluge of ‘populism’. The word seems most commonly applied to President Donald Trump, but electoral surprises in large democracies—Jair Bolsonaro, Rodrigo Duterte, Brexit, the Five Star Movement—have been blamed on the

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Donald Trump warns US Fed chair not to cut rates before the electionwww.ft.com Ex-president says he would let Jay Powell finish term at central bank if he was ‘doing the right thing’

Trump voters love that he's corrupt & willing to do anything to win because they believe he'll do the same for them. Like hiring the scummiest, shadiest lawyer because he's the one Who Gets Results. Nevermind that this is largely untrue, it's a trope, so it's realer than reality & truer than truth

Donald Trump warns US Fed chair not to cut rates before the election https://www.ft.com/content/11bc931f-5c5e-4e3c-9ceb-9bdca25430ad

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My parents’ friends are on a world cruise with Princess (read: $$, old people) and in 77 days, 10 people have died

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Yes, I am still going with the sunsets. This one graced by (I think) a Great Egret #SkySky #birds #Silhouettes

*looks around at everything* Yup, we still need more sunsets #SkySky

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It’s gross that the Republicans are putting grieving families on a stage to blame their loved ones deaths on Biden and it’s equally gross that cable pundits are sitting there critiquing the performance like it’s an Olympic skating event

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roslynn.bsky.social

This is the Post, not the Times, but I wouldn’t hold my breath!

in case you needed to know exactly how much the media actually respects the rule of law and adherence to independent justice department procedures or whatever, they described trump's corrupt court appointees changing the law for him to get him out of crimes he committed as "wins"

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Psst: Project 2025 is terrifying for a lot of reasons but also because on page 5 it calls for teachers and librarians who grant access to books that are maligned as pornography (which just means anything LGBTQ) to be registered as sex offenders. Pass it on.

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Groups call out Lee Greenwood's 'hateful speech' at Albany 4th of July concertdemocratherald.com He said: "The only thing we hope for is that we can stop illegal immigration. Because the people who are coming through are coming through to kill you."

God the Republicans are always breaking promises and dashing hopes. First the taco trucks on every corner and now this.

9 days before the assassination attempt, Lee Greenwood (who partners with Trump on a $60 Bible) told a 4th of July crowd undocumented immigrants are coming to kill them.

I would have campaigned door to door for taco trucks on every corner...

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Imagine if Marco Rubio and Ron DeSantis and Ted Cruz were actually charismatic. The fascist movement they’re trying to install in the White House again would probably have a lot more popular support.

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ApocalypticaNow

Manichaeism is a hell of a drug.

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ApocalypticaNow

Also, just wrong as a factual matter. The country as a whole and just about every battleground state are within the margins of error.

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It's weird how often I see leftists sneer at politicians who announce popular policies in order to gain more support. That's how it's supposed to work!

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I find it mathematically absurd huge swaths of our electorate or ready to give up against a guy with no road to 50%. He's a 46-48% guy. That will always, always, be beatable. He is mathematically incapable of "putting this away".

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Remember 2022? All the data showed a tight leanR and we outworked + outspent, and were NY state away from utterly and completely holding the line- a state where the defense efforts were, in places, scattered, and interparty fighting scrambled efforts. Otherwise we won that night. Food for thought.

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A coda: People need a pick a lane between "polling sucks" and "I'm gonna tank my mood and willingness to fight with polling". I recommended simply the truth: polling is imperfect and highly subject to quality, and the quality shows a tight race. Let's get after it.

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I'd rather be a point up, sure. But as long as he's within 3/4, I'm not panicking. He's the incumbent POTUS with a wealthier, larger, and better funded ground apparatus. This is winnable.

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The Trump campaign "surge" is actually resembling Romney's more than Biden's. He wants better numbers to take down an incumbent. There's am arrogance developing about an enthusiasm gap that isn't showing up in high quality data and a lead that doesn't look all that durable. And they have $ issues.

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If Biden's within two points in a poll, that poll shows this as essentially an even race, folks. And the trend, so far, isn't actually against him. An incumbent with a huge $ advantage in an essentially even race is the smart bet. Nows the time to get to work, not give up.

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The incumbent has advantages. Period. It's worth something and that something, while hard to always quantify, shows up. Money is worth something. So are political operations.

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The very best models showed Trump closing on her, and her campaign wasn't much acting like it. I though she was sunk 2 weeks before she was. Nothing looked good. Biden, on the other hand, had a much more durable lead. It fluctuated, it tightened, but it held.

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Hillary's trend was moving in the wrong direction. It wasn't a free fall but it wasn't positive. Her positive in the firewall was weakening and the quality of the polls showing her running up the score in lean R states weren't awesome. The Comey hit *clearly* hurt.

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A political poll can only reflect its sample, and it's moment in time. That's a tricky flaw with all election polling: the only moment in time that matters is election day. There's a reason people keep taking them, over and over. They're trying to project a trend and get an idea of the race.

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A poll that predicts one party will win with a two point margin of error when the other party wins by a point is actually a decent one. It wasn't wrong. It was almost as close as you can count on a political poll getting.

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The margin of error isn't some weird mathematical appendix that serves no purpose in analyzing a data set. It is the mathematical expression of random sampling error. It is vitally important it be noticed and given weight.

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