The cool thing is, if he's right (& the polls appear to be confirming it so far) it means the polling is busted in exactly the way people suspected it was, & the "historic realignment" stuff is not necessarily balderdash, but it's at least partly an artifact of partisan nonresponse
Which way do people suspect polling is busted? I’d like to think it overestimates Trump’s support, but polling in 2020 actually underestimated it. Midterm 2022 polling was closer than most years.
Not sure! Probably a little in Biden's favor but the degree is basically impossible to tell. But "Trump making huge gains with nonwhite voters & voters under 35" seems a lot less likely than "those demographics being particularly unwilling to respond to pollsters unless they're sickos"
I remember polls were at least busted enough for pundits to say D women had moved on from dobbs by Nov 2022 and I never saw much attempt to reconcile that
