I'm willing to accept the possibility that Russia would have invaded no matter what, but it seems likely to me that if Ukraine had ceded Crimea and agreed not to join NATO, the war could have been avoided, or shut down after Russia's initial losses. US always knew we'd never send troops.
I'm sympathetic to Ukraine, but it is blatantly obvious that US support has been primarily about funneling money to defense contractors while slowly bleeding Ukraine in order to slowly bleed Russia. There was a diplomatic solution at the beginning of this that was ignored in favor of these goals.
Gotta say I think this is wildly incorrect.
Not only was Russia continuously engaging in hybrid warfare in eastern Ukraine the entire time, but also Russia was pretty openly demanding that Ukraine remain within its hegemonic orbit. Ironically, its occupation and ethnic cleansing of Crimea
made this impossible: Crimea was by far the most Russian (ethnically and linguistically) part of Ukraine, hence amputating it upset the balance of demography domestically in Ukraine *before* you consider the anti-Russian reaction this naturally engendered
Prior to the invasion of Crimea you can maybe imagine a detente where Ukraine’s major political parties decide to compromise in a sort of third way/european neutrality league alongside other former Soviet states,
and in that world the U.S. EU and RF can maybe figure something out.
But in the world of the invasion and ethnic cleansing of Crimea happened and the invasion and hybrid war in the donbass was ongoing? No.
It’s true that one reason that support for Ukraine has such a broad political base among US interest groups is that supplying Ukraine is basically a machine that inputs U.S. pork barrel spending and outputs devastation upon a psychotically evil Russian imperial invader
But another reason is that many other loci of interest agree it’s the right thing to do for reasons as varied as disarmament (Ukrainian defeat would demonstrate that only nuclear weapons guarantee national safety) to simple morality (since Russia is engaged in genocide)
Absolutely wild to see people talking about "ethnic cleansing of Crimea" and not be referring to the two times the Russian Empire and the USSR actually did do ethnic cleansing, but instead a third time, where they apparently ethnically cleansed the Russians they previously settled.
Perhaps but I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect Ukraine to willingly give up crimea, and, NATO or not, Russia did the invading. The war is a Russian aggressive war of choice.
Putin has always been coming for Odessa. He’d accept at most a landlocked Ukraine that is surrounded by Russian/Belarusian speaking territories. And he’d still want that sweet, sweet farmland.
"It seems to me that if she would just have s*x with him and not scream that much, he would not rape her" mentality again 🤦 what from the things which are not yours are you ready to give up next? Poland? Estonia?
It's not a normal metaphor because the situation is not normal. Does it disturb you? It should, as it should disturb you what Russians are doing in Ukraine for more than a decade.
To a degree, to which you are a decent human being. If not, then at least to a degree, you would want others to defend what is yours when unjustly taken from you. If not even that, then to a degree, you want a society system to exist and protect your interests.
Let Russia do land grabs and dictate their neighbors’ alliances, for sure they will stop there. If only we could look back at precedents to learn from them. The really trustworthy, treaty respecting and peaceful Russia.
Yes, this. People who think I'm wrong about Ukraine: does Ukraine have a military path to victory on their own terms, absent a major escalation (Western troops and/or air power)? Even if they ever did (doubtful), does our ongoing level of support drag out an unwinnable conflict?
The outcome Ukraine wants. The outcome they're willing to die for. Ukraine is speaking loudly for itself. It doesn't need people like you telling it what is worth spilling blood over.
On this point we disagree. Crimea was the warning shot and should have been halted right there and then. The fact that the world stood around and was like “oh well” for a decade did not help. Don’t block me✌️
No! Russia's motivations were a combination of wanting to preclude Ukraine from joining European economic institutions and Putin's personal predilections. Be smarter! This stuff was in bad faith!
