i don't know, man, i'm just some humble idiot shitposter, but i do not think that the democratic party trying to usurp the sitting president from the nomination and then also throwing the first black vice-president under the bus will be very popular with the democratic party's voter base
yes, gar, i think he's got about the same chances he did before last night, and the immediate polling backs me up, but if you want to play amateur politics knower, i'm happy to explain to you in unpleasant detail why i think you don't know what you're talking about
trump faces sentencing in less than two weeks, and while he may not get jail time, he might get home confinement — whatever it is, he's extremely unlikely to get *nothing* on more than three dozen felony counts, and every time "convicted felon" comes up, his support drops with independents
the GOP at both the national and state levels are an organizational and operational shitshow, neither of them are prepared to mount a voter mobilization effort in any state, let alone any competitive state, and the trumps will still have substantial legal expenses to divert donations to
debates almost *never* move the needle on support, and they particularly don't move the needle if no one's watching them (as was the case last night) but attack clips are extremely effective, and the biden campaign got even more of those than they'll be able to use last night out of trump
discounted airtime in all of the competitive states has already been prepaid by the biden campaign, which means trump's campaign will have to spend *significantly* more on commercials than biden is spending, which drains funds that should be spent on GOTV ops, which, again, they don't have
polling has — according to every pollster who has been asked — been exceptionally difficult this year, and has produced a lot of incoherent and unlikely results that should be treated with far more caution than anyone is actually treating them. it doesn't mean they're wrong, but they're not gospel.
I think Biden knew this was gonna be the media reaction to any debate, regardless, and agreed to this (shitty format) one early to take "Biden owes the US a debate" off the table after the conventions.
Trump will appeal his conviction for years. He will serve no time.
I would love to share your belief about independents. But I have zero faith in any adult American who is on the fence about the choices. I think they are looking for an excuse to vote for Trump. Biden just handed it to them.
If that's what you believe, then there's no Democrat who could be so flawless. If independents are "looking for any excuse" to vote for Trump, then it's already over. (But the polling doesn't show that, to be clear.)
You know who didn't seem to like Trump pivoting to "immigrant crime" every time he was asked a question that had nothing to do with it last night? The undecided voters interviewed by Univison. Weird, right?
If that were they case, they would still vote for Trump even if Biden did well. They would say they can't vote for Biden because he was too mean to Trump.
Even if he appeals, the headline in two weeks is “Trump sentenced to prison” or whatever the sentencing is. His court loss has already hurt his poll numbers. His sentencing will be the only story in America, and even if he appeals until the day he dies, the public knows him as a convicted felon.
That’s because nobody believes the GOP has an ounce of morality, ethics or common sense. If they did, we wouldn’t be here. They know Trump’s an idiot, but if he can give them a shot at cementing minority rule in this country, he’s their useful idiot.
I agree but it's a failure of the media that everyone is calling for Biden to step down after one bad night while Trump is a literal deranged felon 🤷♀️
