On this day in 2016, 538 had Hillary up by 7 points on Trump.
Over the last eight years we've seen polls repeatedly fail, and yet I've never seen an election in which smart people have obsessed about polls, especially strange ones like this.
But 538 correctly called 2016 for Trump? Why should what people respond to polls in June necessarily correspond with where things stand five months of campaigning later?
I agree that people over focus on polls too early, but dismissing them as valid on this basis seems weird too.
Yes that’s what I meant. But you’re write, I’m wrong with ‘called it for’, but offering a one in three chance doesn’t seem like a big failure of poll analysis in that instance?
I dunno, maybe we just disagree on that.
