lol. i mean, i’m no fuckin’ nostradamus, but, like, same as it was in march, same as it was in january, same as it was all through 2023, trump’s campaign fundamentals look bad, bad, bad, and either those are gonna matter, or nothing does
Because I'm busy trying to manage The Fear*, what fundamentals are you thinking of?
*which yes, I know is best solved through work, I do Tech For Campaigns regularly.
they outsourced outreach and mobilization to charlie kirk, RNC has very few field offices in any state, their ad buys are both anemic and late, state parties are in complete disorder, trump’s rallies are way below attendance from even 2020 and the RNC purged the few experienced pros they had
Yeah, a lot was made of Trump getting a huge influx of cash after his conviction but if he isn't spending it then that's another factor against him. Also, that influx included one $50M donation from some RW weirdo, and his per-person pledges are down. The only area where he seems ahead is polling.
This is more and more where I am. There's only so many once-in-a-generation realignments that haven't shown up in any other election results of the past four years that I can believe in, anecdotes or no.
Also, a lot of the polls are reporting just rock-bottom response rates that it's hard to tell if the results they're getting are really representative, to say nothing of the delays in the samples vs. the results. Like, I saw a poll today from NYT that is post debate but pre SCOTUS decision.
That's a big deal, and so even though the same NYT is trying to keep the "Biden is so old" narrative going, anecdotally a lot of people seem really turned off by Trump basically being given a pass for a lot of his actions and there's fear of what another regime would do.
There will be polling on that I'm sure, but that'll be delayed by days to weeks and so we'll get these lagging indicators of where voters are on top of the samples being wonky.
