lol. i mean, i’m no fuckin’ nostradamus, but, like, same as it was in march, same as it was in january, same as it was all through 2023, trump’s campaign fundamentals look bad, bad, bad, and either those are gonna matter, or nothing does
can i once again register a complaint about how i, shitposter, have to learn this stuff because no one who covers politics and elections for a living gives a shit about doing their jobs
And yet no one is harassing this man to get up in front of audiences and stop hiding.
One candidate has some very concerning sign of decline and it’s not Biden.
I heard someone on msnbc a few weeks ago that said maga makes up about 14% of the voting electorate. A lot of the people in MO just follow like sheep. We're about a 60/40 state split between both parties.
Because I'm busy trying to manage The Fear*, what fundamentals are you thinking of?
*which yes, I know is best solved through work, I do Tech For Campaigns regularly.
they outsourced outreach and mobilization to charlie kirk, RNC has very few field offices in any state, their ad buys are both anemic and late, state parties are in complete disorder, trump’s rallies are way below attendance from even 2020 and the RNC purged the few experienced pros they had
it does strike me that a lot of the people certain that biden should drop out, that trump is unstoppable, etc, are also the same people who thought desantis would cruise to the nomination.
I am literally a professional politics-knower and I can confirm that our ability to predict what will happen next is literally never as good as pundits like to pretend it is. As I tell my grad students, social science doesn't do point predictions.
Or that Haley, had she won the nomination, would be cruising to a double digit victory, rather than trying to hold together a shattered caucus as Trump, from the outside, took a sledgehammer to its supports.
The Republicans are going to dump Trump for the younger, more articulate and even more evil model. lol some of us fell for that. Reagan could’ve rose from the grave and the MAGA’s would’ve crushed him as a non-believer
The fact that DeSantis won a recently-purple state by *20 points* is solid evidence of his personal charm and genuine political skills and nothing whatsoever to do with the health of the Florida democratic party.
And now, apropos of nothing, let's check in on the Michigan GOP...
Someone posted a screenshot from you in the comments at Lawyers Guns & Money. Good to see some sense over there (since most of the bloggers seem to have left planet earth)
I remember the conventional wisdom right after the 2016 RNC was that it was an embarrassment for the party (weird speeches, nobody from the old guard showed up except Bob Dole) and like 2 days later nobody cared
i fully recognize that those things are meaningless but also recognize that a lot of places I knew, for absolute certain, had trump signs up at the beginning of the year have taken them down
