Everything's complicated and my hesitation about replacing Biden up to now has been informed by polls showing other candidates not doing much better. But a lot of people seem remarkably certain that Harris specifically could not win a general election for reasons I think they should say out loud.
There's a very specific personal vulnerability there that I'm surprised hasn't come up much on the right, but my sense is that doubt here is more about, uh, demographic concerns that haven't really been fleshed out or justified explicitly. Could be wrong.
This is very valid and true, but if the choice is between her a guy who cannot reliably complete sentences without a teleprompter...I dunno, man.
bsky.app/profile/lewm...
To be fair, the last time she was in a national election, everyone thought she would be a formidable candidate but she did terribly, and was widely considered a surprisingly poor campaigner. So there is a data point.
Anyway, if Biden stays in, which seems likely, I don't think telling people "no, he's fine, actually" for the next several months is tenable. I don't know what you say instead. But openly lying to voters over and over again about something they know to be untrue probably hurts Dems long-term. So.
This is what the numbers have looked like for ages. Again, not especially promising for anyone. The question is whether anyone else would be more likely to gain ground between now and November. bsky.app/profile/perr...
I would suggest he just sit down with you and few other reasonable writers (e.g., not nyt) and we get some actual information on how he seems in a more normal context
I don’t think any rush. He can always just “slip” in shower in October and bow out (making the kamala racism issues kinda moot; not kamala as cop issues but bruenigs and carl will always be voting trump and i hope others will be more grown up about)
