Correct, it’s mostly Trump vs Not Trump. But the voters left over — even many “Not Trump” voters — are saying Biden is too old. Harris would inherit Biden’s voters and stand a chance at rallying the leftovers, given her ability to form cogent sentences and campaign/debate vigorously.
People keep saying he “barely won” like it’s true. He had the biggest margin of any election since 1996 except for Obama 2008! There aren’t going to be any Johnson/GHWB style blowouts in the foreseeable future.
Trump ended his presidency in disaster and Biden won thanks to a few tens of thousands of votes in three swing states. Yes, they added up electorally. But the margin in each was razor slim (same as when Trump won).
The point one, there’s no indication of Biden performing as well.
Honestly, i wish Biden was trying to win. Reminded that Jon Stewart has been calling his election coverage Indecision for years. This year's Indecision 2024.
All these survey always are pointless, asking a representative sample of people how they'd vote for a name that 30% won't recognise is worse than useless.
I mean, he's breathing and running against Trump. Anyone who I wouldn't vote for in that situation is going to have to be so awful they'd certainly be famously notorious.
coughrfkjrcough
(Although if those were literally the only two options, I would vote for RFK under the assumption that not everyone he would staff the admin with would be as awful)
That's a preferred way to view the electorate, but it's not how the electorate tends to behave.
You have to understand that poll results are tied to the way a question is phrased. Any pollster worth their salt would tell you this was a poorly executed poll.
What miniscule variance there is seems driven by how well-known the alternative is. There's little reason to infer that, if they became better known, their numbers would differ much from those of Biden and Harris.
I think people press this point too hard... there's a good 9 states (counting Omaha as a "state") that are close enough to plausibly matter. The basic point stands, but the map is a bit more expansive than people are assuming.
There's a lot of people who seem to (falsely) believe this is a race to change minds when it's more a race of turnout, and I'm not sure anyone on that list demonstrably drives more Dems to the polls than Biden.
To steel man their argument, it's not about the polls now, it's about confidence in these candidates to fight into a lead. Harris doesn't look any worse than Biden here, and I think she'd have more ability to prosecute the case, so to speak.
That said…
The only way to make this situation worse is to give Trump the ability to say "I punched him so hard he had to quit the presidency in shame, and they had to send out their second string"
Right, and since no one hits 50 percent in any of these polls, it’s also about how the undecideds will break at the last minute. The Democrats need someone who can make a strong closing.
The evidence of the last 3 days is that Biden can make a very strong closing if he has a cheering crowd and/or a teleprompter and/or the adrenaline of a near death experience
What if the problem is that Dems in general are blamed for "bad vibes" (i.e., post-COVID malaise)? Then swapping Biden for somebody else won't help, but you lose the advantage of incumbency.
Joe Biden clinched the nomination; he’s our choice. What justifiable reason is there to ignore the will of voters?
No matter what the GQP becomes, we can’t let their rot corrupt us, too.
We are not a cabal of compromised, immoral, insurrectionists. They are.
We win elections, not steal them.
From 2020 on, elections will be decided by who shows up. There are no undecideds. Trump engages the radical right that normally stays home without losing the traditional GOP base. Dems would crush him if they nominated a radical too.
I actually don’t find that interesting. The percentage of Americans who know every name on the list is probably shockingly low. So this is the “I want the Dem no matter what”-group, plus a bonus for the guy I’ve heard of (Biden), vs. I’m willing to vote for Trump.
I feel like this also may just be the “who?” effect — if one of these folks got more exposure i think they might move the needle (could do it in either direction)
