calling it now: whenever nate releases the nyt/sienna it's gonna have it neck and neck, probably a smallish trump lead, and that lead is going to be basically entirely from, oh, let's say, a 40 to 50 point shift R among nonwhite 18-29s.
this will be, fundamentally, unchanged from every single other poll this year, and you can belive it's a plausible reflection of the outcome in november or not.
oh actually let me add one more thing: nyt/sienna will probably show trump narrowly winning women. maybe even white women
The real question, dead serious not being a smartass, is what the fuck is Nate Cohn's obsession with people who were eligible but didn't bother to vote and slapping the label "likely voter" on them for no apparent reason?
Did they vote in this year's primary? Or in 2022? I know there are some first-time voters in every election, but I really do think you need a track record to be LV.
