Matt Weiner: (I was just like "I can't remember who replaced Grassley")

It will be kind of an interesting ~problem if Labour has such a huge majority that almost half their MPs are all but certain to lose re-election next normal election

Another MRP from Find Out Now. Labour: 450 Lib Dems: 71 Con: 60 SNP: 24 Reform: 18 (!) Green: 4 PC: 4 www.mirror.co.uk/news/politic...

Bombshell poll shows Tories pushed into third place behind Lib Demswww.mirror.co.uk The MRP poll of almost 20,000 people projects the Tories will be left with just 60 MPs as twenty Cabinet ministers are ousted at the General Election including Rishi Sunak

Labour heading for a 2006/2008 Dem-style victory where they have a limited window for a blank check before the inevitable backlash hits.

This arguably explains a bit of the 2020 underperformance in the U.S., too. Democrats had *such* a historically good 2018 that they really couldn't defend all those seats with presidential turnout, but they got left with a pretty unified House coalition that was insanely productive in 2021-2022.

I guess I was the weird guy out in 2020 cause I thought Dems would lose seats. Dems had a national margin of D+8 in 2018, polls were settling around Biden+7. That implied a small loss. Same deal this year. Polls showed Biden/Trump tied against R+3 in 2022. Republicans are gonna lose seats.

this logic implicitly assumes constant districts, though, and they’re not

Deleted earlier reply cause I thought we were still talking about Parliament. Yes I think NC redistricting throws a wrench in that. Too many Republican flips have nothing to do with redistricting though, they do have some strong incumbents. Holding the House is far from a sure thing for them.

Biden winning but House and Senate flipping sides in opposite directions would be a deeply frustrating result 🙃

Yeah. It's also the most likely outcome right now in my view.

I can live with it! Frustrating is right though

It basically stops the judge train and requires Sotomayor and Kagan to remain on the court for another four (and possibly 8-12) years, which is why I think one of them needs to retire at the end of this term.

not completely out of the question for Dems to gain a Senate seat or two in '26. Dems are defending two seats Biden won by <5 (GA, MI) and two more he won by <10 (MN, NH), R's are defending one seat Biden won by 9 (ME), one he lost by <5 (NC), and he lost TX and IA by <10...ok that's pretty remote.

Yeah, I'm just putting Texas and Iowa off the table in a Biden midterm. A Trump midterm, however, at least puts Texas on the board.

(As always, with the asterisk of how free our elections actually get to be in a second Trump administration.)

after the last midterm I'm not absolutely certain that a Biden midterm generates backlash, though the last time a two-term president had two good midterms was probably never. Given trends I have no hope for IA but TX... will remain forever the great purple whale idk maybe an IA special gets weird

(I was just like "I can't remember who replaced Grassley")

Post