This is showing Harris out-performing Biden, especially with independents, which might be a first. And if that's a real trend, it makes the case for her nomination that much stronger.
Right, but that's bad, because the argument pre-debate was that the debate would show that Biden can get out there, make the case, and start swinging undecideds toward him. And I think that case gets less and less compelling every day.
All we’ve been hearing since Thursday is that the debate was so bad we need to talk about replacing him. No/little change in polling undermines that narrative, which never made any sense anyway.
I mean does the fact that him having an absolute disaster of a debate didn’t move the needle really disprove the idea that undecideds could swing if he had a good one? It’s all hypothetical.
The argument is that undecideds aren't paying attention yet (which is why an early debate was a good idea), but that when they do start paying attention, what will they see? This race has been static, but elections can often start breaking one way in the final months. 1/
And the concern (and it's a real concern) is that if the race starts breaking hard for Trump around September, it's too late to do anything. Of course, this could also be true for Harris. It could be baked in. But those are the options. 2/2
