Harris polls slightly better now, when she's not running, but once the opposition machine is pointed at her, things change. (This is true of any candidate.) All of these scenarios live in perfectly-spherical-cows land and I wish people could see past that.
Obviously we need more data (and quickly) but it seems to indicate that the key voters are more likely to vote for Harris, right? PoC and swing voters are the people who make all the difference, aren’t they?
This is showing Harris out-performing Biden, especially with independents, which might be a first. And if that's a real trend, it makes the case for her nomination that much stronger.
Right, but that's bad, because the argument pre-debate was that the debate would show that Biden can get out there, make the case, and start swinging undecideds toward him. And I think that case gets less and less compelling every day.
All we’ve been hearing since Thursday is that the debate was so bad we need to talk about replacing him. No/little change in polling undermines that narrative, which never made any sense anyway.
I mean does the fact that him having an absolute disaster of a debate didn’t move the needle really disprove the idea that undecideds could swing if he had a good one? It’s all hypothetical.
The argument is that undecideds aren't paying attention yet (which is why an early debate was a good idea), but that when they do start paying attention, what will they see? This race has been static, but elections can often start breaking one way in the final months. 1/
If it really has to be done (and I still very much hope it doesn't have to be) it needs to be by way of Biden's resignation. And not just a quick speech. We're talking a big emotional public ceremony where Harris is anointed the Chosen One and we get a FEW days of favorable headlines at least.
Agreed. I regard those who think Biden can resign from the campaign but not the presidency with suspicion. It's why the open convention talk is silly. Not only does no other candidate have the campaign infrastructure, but if Biden can't run for president, he can't run the White House.
I checked CNN's exit polls and Biden won women by 15 points. Do I believe that post-Dobbs there has been a 20-point swing towards Trump amongst women in particular? Do I have a visible head injury?
www.cnn.com/election/202...
Polls have been fucked since Dobbs. Like, scarily fucked. Even in places where R’ win there are MASSIVE swings, and thats in off season votes. This election is gonna be a bloodbath.
I know, right? Also no way Trump EVER gets 49. No poll ever claims to be perfect, but it really feels like this cycle they're wonkier than ever. (Not that any of this is good news for us, no sir. Nope.)
What’s great for the people who really really like Kamala Harris even more than Joe Biden is the high likelihood that she will become president sometime in the next few years if Biden wins.
Copmala Fate
Biden Harris already lost a ton of support from Black voters since 2020.
For same reasons he’s lost other voters, age, housing prices, Gaza. Etc etc.
No introspection, just weird racist claims that Black voters are a monolith.
prada.substack.com/p/you-get-sc...
