Osita Nwanevu: Importantly, to the extent they've been off in the last couple of elections, they've been off in underestimating support for Trump.

I mean, she did beat Trump in the popular vote by about 2 points. On this day in 2020, Biden was up by about 10 in the RCP average and won by about 5. In 2012, Obama was up by 3 and won by 4. In 2008, Obama was up by 6 and won by 7. Doesn't seem like an obvious record of presidential failure to me.

On this day in 2016, 538 had Hillary up by 7 points on Trump. Over the last eight years we've seen polls repeatedly fail, and yet I've never seen an election in which smart people have obsessed about polls, especially strange ones like this.

Eight point and five point swings seem like failure to me. Also, I specified the last eight years.

Importantly, to the extent they've been off in the last couple of elections, they've been off in underestimating support for Trump.

Yes, for those two presidential cycles. No for midterms. My larger point is that public polls this far out are not helpful.

The forlorn hope is that they were off bc people were virtue signaling that they didn’t support Trump He has been around so long now that people feel no stigma in being like “I am a Trump guy” so we won’t see a swing towards him *reaching*

Post