I mean, she did beat Trump in the popular vote by about 2 points. On this day in 2020, Biden was up by about 10 in the RCP average and won by about 5. In 2012, Obama was up by 3 and won by 4. In 2008, Obama was up by 6 and won by 7. Doesn't seem like an obvious record of presidential failure to me.
On this day in 2016, 538 had Hillary up by 7 points on Trump.
Over the last eight years we've seen polls repeatedly fail, and yet I've never seen an election in which smart people have obsessed about polls, especially strange ones like this.
The one weird thing this year is RFK Jr. Some polls have him at 12% and some have him at 3%. He does seem to take evenly from Biden and Trump, and I think he’ll end up not being much of a factor.
