Omar Wasow: Today’s 538 podcast made an interesting point: — Despite Trump’s many issues, base remains with him so GOP elites fall in line with party leader — With Biden, ~75% of base think Dems have better shot with someone else, so looming question is whether Dem elites will follow base or party leader

Today’s 538 podcast made an interesting point: — Despite Trump’s many issues, base remains with him so GOP elites fall in line with party leader — With Biden, ~75% of base think Dems have better shot with someone else, so looming question is whether Dem elites will follow base or party leader

538 Podcast: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f... CNN article with 75% stat: www.cnn.com/2024/07/02/p...

CNN Poll: Most voters think Democrats have a better chance of keeping White House if Biden isn’t the nominee | CNN Politicswww.cnn.com Three-quarters of US voters say the Democratic Party would have a better shot at holding the presidency in 2024 with someone other than President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket, according to a new...

Could 75% of voters be wrong, especially if they’re planning on voting Blue either way?

Of course, but point is that dynamics are very different right now for GOP than Dems.

Different, but unsurprising? Trump is the Republican Party. Democrats are not so attached to a individual person other than maybe Barack Obama.

Parties are coalitions. Trump is highly influential in GOP but there are other forces like donors, base, media, activists, etc. That means even Trump can't go too off-script. Insight from 538 is base matters for both parties, but each exerts a different pull. www.independent.co.uk/news/world/a...

Trump campaign walks back green cards for all foreign graduates planwww.independent.co.uk Conservative immigration groups lead outcry about ‘cockamamie proposal’

That 75% has a dozen someone elses, some of them imaginary. There's no way to follow all of them, and maybe not even most of them.

Points remain that Dem base is not sufficiently aligned with Biden to serve as a disciplining force on elites to stick with party leader, and that dynamic is different for GOP.

Based on the last 50 years of American politics a) GOP will circle the wagons no matter what b) the DNC does not realize why that strategy keeps working

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