Redistrict Girl

@redistrictgirl.bsky.social

Followers

Following

314

Posts

I guess politics and I guess pretty okay, I post about politics and I post pretty angry.
(she/her)

Posts Replies Media

Reminder that in 2022, Wisconsin only voted 0.2 points to the right of the nation on the generic ballot. If Biden can keep the post-Dobbs coalition he's definitely within striking distance.

Biden vs. Trump polling average: R+1.8 Harris vs. Trump polling average: R+2.7

Trump is such a great unifier that he got Democrats to cheer his VP pick

...Oh. Well Trump just made the worst possible VP pick for the "silence" strategy.

I've seen hints of "Fuck you specifically, Biden" among Democrats and swing voters while touching grass, but I'd be surprised if it led to a 10% gap. More likely that negative polarization takes hold (good for Dems) or those voters simply stay home (good for GOP). Trump's best strategy is silence.

Amazing new YouGov swing state poll. Biden running 11-15 net points worse than Senate Dem in AZ MI NV PA & WI. Trump ahead in all 5; Dem handily head in all 5 Senate races.

This is not a confident GOP. I still don't think they're confident today.

I know everyone is focused on the shiny object, and with good reason, but can we also look at this other above-the-fold item, pretty please? Thanks. www.nytimes.com/2024/07/13/u...

Reposted by

Redistrict Girl

everyone dooming because this'll get Trump elected is way over their skis, everyone dooming because this is going to get the American Years of Lead really going in earnest is probably correct

Electorally, I think Trump is in a stronger position than he was on Friday, but I don't think that position is sustainable through November.

I think it’s possible that this thoughtless act is the powder keg. Not looking forward to it, kind of counted on having six more months to prep or flee

Fuck

Checked Twitter again and this has singlehandedly 100% convinced me that Harris should be the nominee

Hmmmm

This applied for a second time tonight

This is a perfect example of the problem with keeping Biden. Everyone is so on edge about his age that even an understandable flub will dominate the news cycle and probably hurt his polling.

I don’t like Harris one iota but these kinds of numbers indicate that the reward outweighs the risk here

From same poll, head to head numbers: Biden 46 Trump 47 Harris 49 Trump 46

Trump wants to make my public existence a crime

Frankly I just want Democrats in the best position possible after the convention. I don't know if Biden is going to survive (metaphorically or literally) through August. Harris is probably the best candidate, then, judging by polling and a reasonable estimation of optics.

Plaster "Trump's Project 2025 will ban Sunday football" on every ad you reasonably can and I guarantee we get at LEAST a three-point swing

Tired: Project 2025 wants to bring back the Sabbath. Wired: Project 2025 will ban Sunday sportsball games and forget about getting beer.

I suspect that the median voter will not actually be that upset about a candidate from a brokered convention, but losing the preexisting campaign funding is too much of a challenge to overcome

Maybe Kendrick Lamar should drop a diss track about Trump

This is correct. However, it's challenging when the moment in question is going to happen within two years, our last candidate at the top of the ticket has effectively been chosen, and none of the federal politicians we have who control legitimate levers of power seem willing to use those.

what left and the right both understand is that we are approaching a moment of constitutional rupture. what the right understands and the left does not is that extraconstitutional violence is not some magic "i win" button. rather the rupture will proceed through the forms and orders of american law.

Reposted by

Redistrict Girl

As an American who Actually Moved To Canada, here are some things to consider if you’re serious about getting the fuck out of the US, a thread:

Reposted by

Redistrict Girl

I have probably voted in more elections than you since I became eligible. We are the practical ones. You people are the ones who failed to meet the moments in 2016 and 2021. I'm going to vote and it's probably not going to work because Biden let half the states get away with becoming theocracies.

The willingness of the left wing of the Democratic party to coronate Kamala should be sufficient proof that it actually takes electoral success seriously

It's so fucking Joever

Something curious I've noticed during early work on my presidential forecast - Arizona polling essentially indicates that 2022 was a total fluke and Democrats are heavily unlikely to improve much upon their 2020 outcome (after adjusting for environment). I'm a little skeptical on that.

I'm a little surprised that Biden is somehow holding steady after that debate. Only a little, because every election this decade has been Incredibly Stupid, and this sequence of events is the most Incredibly Stupid option I can think of.

That is the spirit of bipartisanship to politicos

every politico used to talk about carville’s marriage to (GOP operative) mary matalin like it encapsulated the spirit of bipartisanship and cooperation, but in retrospect they probably just didn’t disagree on anything they really cared about

The worst thing about Joe Biden is that he is somehow better than his Vice President

Watch who he always throws under the bus, first. This is irredeemable despicable.

Biden Agrees to Ban LGBTQ Pride Flags at US Embassieswww.bloomberg.com President Joe Biden agreed to ban US embassies from flying the LGBTQ pride flag as part of a $1.2 trillion spending deal to keep most US government agencies open through Sept. 30.

How's it going, Nate Si- okay goodbye