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Positive feedback loops, how do they work
Cook Political Report makes changes in its Presidential ratings, both reflecting and adding to the gloom pervading Dem insiders
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IIRC Cook is the one who called PA for Oz in 22 because even though polls showed he'd lose they already decided Republicans would take the Senate but they didn't have them winning enough seats.
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They didn't have enough seats because even though CCM wasn't polling well Ralston said she'd win, so they changed NV but didn't want to change Senate control
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No actually that was Sabato’s Crystal Ball I think. And in general, I really respect them. But that was a bad call.
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Anyway, it’s also a silly thing to argue about, because Cook still agrees that the traditional blue wall is all toss ups, and the Biden can win by winning them
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If we get a rate cut in September and the economy is still chugging along it’s gonna be real fun to revisit our July gloom
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We won't. No one will. Time will progress and we will learn nothing. But hopefully things will shake out ok
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It’s so funny to me how much attention NE-2 gets. I mean it’s not a ton but that it gets mentioned at all is neat when you’re sitting in the same state and you’re in maybe the deepest red electoral vote in the whole country. Turns out the winner take all system is bad??
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Cook has been bullish on dems precisely one time in 24 years