Taniel: Le Monde breaks it down amazingly well: —Left candidates: 132 dropped out 5 did not drop out in districts with an RN threat —Macronists: 81 dropped out 16 didn't in "threat" districts —Conservatives didn't care: 3 dropped out 12 didn't lemonde.fr/les-decodeur...

FRANCE UPDATE: The near-final list of candidates who are in the French runoffs is out. Two days ago, 311 districts were going to have 3-way or 4-way runoffs. Then, 200+ candidates dropped out to block far-right. So: There'll be "just" 91 such runoffs this coming Sunday.

Le Monde breaks it down amazingly well: —Left candidates: 132 dropped out 5 did not drop out in districts with an RN threat —Macronists: 81 dropped out 16 didn't in "threat" districts —Conservatives didn't care: 3 dropped out 12 didn't lemonde.fr/les-decodeur...

This amount of coalescing against the far-right by no means looked certain as of a week ago. While it can't just erase Macronists' extraordinarily equivocating 'pox on both houses' rhetoric during the campaign, it does make it a lot harder for the far-right to win on Sunday.

It's also exactly the key to saving democracy that Levitsky & Ziblatt suggest in 'How Democracies Die." And a nice bright spot in a pretty bleak global political landscape.

I just wish Canadian Liberals & NDP would take a lesson from this because Canada too is on the edge of disaster because we don't vote smart - we don't put country over party.

Ironically the Liberals have benefitted from the split vote just as much as the PCs. NDP win on an electoral reform platform would be awesome.

Actually the conservatives benefit more - in the 2019 election the CPC won 30 seats in 2 provinces because of the vote split. The conservatives won 5 provinces with less than 40% of the vote because of the vote split. The split is always the NDP & Libs - it only hurts left voters - never cons.

If the left voters all switch to the macronists in two way races, and vice versa, what are the expected seat totals?

If it really was all or near all on both sides, that'd make plunge the RN 'only' win something like... 140 seats maybe? But such perfect or even near perfect vote transfers is just VERY unrealistic. It's just not happening.

Is there any reasonable chance that the far-right might be prevented from taking majority control? Or that the far-right's opposition will have enough seats to form a coalition government to block RN?

thats what he's saying - a RN (far right) majority now looks much more unlikely than even 4-5 days ago

Okay, then. I will cling to that wee morsel of hope.

The Harris/Challenges poll today put the RN in the 190-220 vicinity, which * seems * about right given the consolidation efforts over the past couple days. Hard to forecast 500 races.

I did a seat by seat prediction yesterday and ended up in that range.

Is that enough to give RN the prime ministership?

neat

Gaullists allying with Vichyists. Go back fifty years and try and explain that, LOL.

Your reporting on the French election has been illuminating and much needed. Thank you.

How does the number / percentage of dropouts compare to previous elections with a strong RN showing?

The number of 3-way and 4-ways in itself is extraordinarily unique. There were 8 in 2022; 1 in 2017. There were going to be 311 this year. This is to a great extent a matter of higher turnout because this is indexed to turnout effectively.

There's obviously something I'm missing ... I understand how the number of 3+-ways relates to the number of candidates in a race (so the NPF running just one candidate increased it), but why is getting 12.5% of low turnout less likely than 12.5% of high turnout?

Because it's not at least 12.5% of the actual voters, but 12.5% of the registered voters. So you need a minimum of a 37.5% turnout for a 3-way race, and a typical constituency (in a normal election) will have 6-10 candidates, with lots of small parties getting at least a few dozen votes.

Thanks! That is in fact what I was missing: I thought it was 12.5% of the *actual* voters. It's now clear, much appreciated!

are the conservatives remaining in expected to help RN more or the left coalition more/where would their voters have been likely to go otherwise?

Those respective proportions are exactly what I’d’ve expected. Fucking right-wingers man (I’m including the president’s party in this designation of course)

Maybe not so bad that conservatives stayed in. Their voters just as likely to go to RN as to Macron, and more likely if RN vs left.

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