Taniel: JUST IN: Polls closed in France. Exit polls show surprise: —Left coalition (New Popular Front) projected first. (!) —Far-right (RN) has lost its bid to take power. Anti-RN front appears to have worked very well. —No bloc close to majority. Follow this 🧵 for results and more:

JUST IN: Polls closed in France. Exit polls show surprise: —Left coalition (New Popular Front) projected first. (!) —Far-right (RN) has lost its bid to take power. Anti-RN front appears to have worked very well. —No bloc close to majority. Follow this 🧵 for results and more:

The 2nd leading pollster projects a similar result—if anything a higher range for the Left coalition. This wld be a much stronger result than expected for the Macron bloc. If confirmed, key takeaway: Left & Macronist voters transferred onto each other much more than expected. Clear anti-RN front.

OUTGOING Assembly for context: —Macronists: 249. (New exit polls: 150-180) —Left bloc: 131. (New exit polls: 170-220) —Far-right: 89. (New exit polls: 120-155) —LR/conservatives: 64 (Exit polls: 65-80) Today will be a record high *by far* for far-right. But also a lot less than it hoped.

So, Q now is: No one is close to 289. Now what...? Olivier Faure, head of socialist party (PS, most center-left party of Left coalition), just spoke to say he'd stay faithful to the New Popular Front platform. (Context: expect Macronists to pressure PS to join & drop LFI).

RESULT: Francois Hollande, the former president from 2012 to 2017 (a center-left figure who alienated his left & named Macron to his Cabinet, but just ran with the Left coalition) has WON. This was a 3-way runoff: Hollande got 43%, with 31% for the RN & 26% for LR.

What's happening RIGHT NOW on TV: something very familiar in countries with a full parliamentary regime — fight over coalitions. Macronists + center-right arguing this isn't a Left win; suggesting a center-left to center-right unity gov. Left insisting this is a Left win. How united will it be?

OH, a big result: Marine Le Pen's *sister* has LOST her bid to join Parliament. She led 40% to 26% in Round 1. Her left opponent won by 0.5%. (Macronist, who came in 3rd, initially said she wouldn't drop out but then changed her mind. Ended up blocking Le Pen.)

I've seen a lot of people point back to previous situations like this but no comment yet about the actual numbers: 3 blocks with 25-30% each means a *new* coalition is needed?

Unless Ensemble peels off PS or the like, there's no room for a centrist unity government, right? Even at the most optimistic projection that's only 245 votes.

"A vote for anyone but us is a vote for pure unadulterated evil. Even Bernie is pushing it." --US Voters

It'll be interesting to see voter turnout (beyond it being higher midday)

Man, I completely forgot Macron was in Hollande's cabinet

Best they can do is to block Macronist policy? Show the people they are ready to actually take the fight against neoliberalism

I sincerely hope that Putin is currently comparing how much money he pushed into the right wing vs. what he got for his money.

For clarity, I hope the comparison gives him that long-awaited aneurism.

more efficient hope: killed by inter-faction violence, found suspiciously having fallen out of a window

cause of death: insatiable hunger for polonium

common in the oligarch class :/

what if we didn’t make every political discussion everywhere about Putin, since most of them aren’t about Russia at all

Far right in France is very much related to Putin sadly

How so?

After the defeat in 2017, they received a huge loan from a russian bank to help them recover. At the time Le Pen spent a lot of time on Russian TV, etc.. theconversation.com/marine-le-pe...

Marine Le Pen, the Rassemblement National and Russia: history of a strategic alliancetheconversation.com A victory of the far-right presidential candidate would be good news for Moscow, which has a long-standing history with Le Pen and her party.

So a center left coalition government?

Looking like. I wouldn’t be surprised if that coalition will require Macron to just step aside entirely as penance for the mess he made

The last French president to resign was Charles de Gaulle in the 1960's. Doubtful.

It’s always doubtful until it happens

Depending on how Macron and Attal handle it, possibly

*fingers crossed* That would be the best (realistic) win the citizens can possibly imagine! Woo to the Hoo! 👏😜🥳

polling suggested this might happen ~65% of voters were saying they didn't want an RN government

Whew. And, thank you for posting here and not just the hellsite. 🙏

Maybe some of the French anticipated buyer's remorse. It's easier when you have to pay twice.

Woohoo!

What is the balance of power in France between president and parliament?

The (very) simplified version is that parliament handles domestic policy and the president handles foreign power and is commander in chief. “Cohabitation” (PM and Pres. in different parties) has proved messy in the past. (In part because every PM wants to be the next president.)

It sounds a little messy! But left/center better than right/center for everyone.

Even better is that they have a distinct left/center/right. The more opposing interests hold power, the less likely it is to be abused or turned to despotism.

right, their center doesn't pretend to be the left.

Thank you

It's a semi-presidential system, so there is a president and a prime minister. "The president may choose the prime minister and cabinet, but only the parliament may approve them and remove them from office with a vote of no confidence. This system is much closer to pure parliamentarism."

Semi-presidential republic - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org

Phew, that's weird lol.

This seems like good news. Now can left and Macron agree on a coalition that will hold together

My solution for Trump, Le Pen, and Farage involves a neck-high shipment of sod and a lawnmower so no one seems to want to hear it.

Well well well

Mon dieu! LOL

Flawless

I didn't create it nor do I recall where I first saw it. I have merely been its steward

I appreciate your honesty and your faithful stewardship.

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