JUST IN: Polls closed in France. Exit polls show surprise:
—Left coalition (New Popular Front) projected first. (!)
—Far-right (RN) has lost its bid to take power. Anti-RN front appears to have worked very well.
—No bloc close to majority.
Follow this 🧵 for results and more:
The 2nd leading pollster projects a similar result—if anything a higher range for the Left coalition.
This wld be a much stronger result than expected for the Macron bloc.
If confirmed, key takeaway: Left & Macronist voters transferred onto each other much more than expected. Clear anti-RN front.
OUTGOING Assembly for context:
—Macronists: 249. (New exit polls: 150-180)
—Left bloc: 131. (New exit polls: 170-220)
—Far-right: 89. (New exit polls: 120-155)
—LR/conservatives: 64 (Exit polls: 65-80)
Today will be a record high *by far* for far-right. But also a lot less than it hoped.
So, Q now is: No one is close to 289. Now what...?
Olivier Faure, head of socialist party (PS, most center-left party of Left coalition), just spoke to say he'd stay faithful to the New Popular Front platform.
(Context: expect Macronists to pressure PS to join & drop LFI).
RESULT: Francois Hollande, the former president from 2012 to 2017 (a center-left figure who alienated his left & named Macron to his Cabinet, but just ran with the Left coalition) has WON.
This was a 3-way runoff: Hollande got 43%, with 31% for the RN & 26% for LR.
What's happening RIGHT NOW on TV: something very familiar in countries with a full parliamentary regime — fight over coalitions.
Macronists + center-right arguing this isn't a Left win; suggesting a center-left to center-right unity gov.
Left insisting this is a Left win. How united will it be?
OH, a big result: Marine Le Pen's *sister* has LOST her bid to join Parliament. She led 40% to 26% in Round 1.
Her left opponent won by 0.5%.
(Macronist, who came in 3rd, initially said she wouldn't drop out but then changed her mind. Ended up blocking Le Pen.)
Where I'm at right now on the big board:
Left bloc: 75
Macron bloc: 44
RN/far-right bloc: 83
LR/right: 16
Other left: 4
Other right: 6
Others: 6
REMAIN: 343. (Long way to go!)
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Gabriel Attal, sitting PM, is now speaking.
He says, "this dissolution [=snap election call], I didn't choose it." Veiled criticism of Macron, given a lot of reporting on Attal not knowing about Macron's decision, & doing a lot more than Macron to block far-right this week.
I'm not familiar with French politics, nor what "left" means in their context. But should this be interpreted that first time in the history of man kind (I'm exaggurating), centrists sided with leftists, not far right? Here in Finland the exact opposite happened, as everywhere else.
I've seen a lot of people point back to previous situations like this but no comment yet about the actual numbers: 3 blocks with 25-30% each means a *new* coalition is needed?
Unless Ensemble peels off PS or the like, there's no room for a centrist unity government, right? Even at the most optimistic projection that's only 245 votes.
Guardian headline: French election 2024 live: exit poll shows shock win for left-green alliance as far right falls to third.
"Perish the thought."
--US Voters
