I say this while assiduously trying not to cast aspersions on any person or outlet in particular
but
if you beat a particular drum for months; see a particular event as vindication for doing so; write piles of panicky copy as a result; then see polling contradict you...
... maybe take a knee?
CNN's new poll doesn't establish some failsafe alternative to Biden for Democrats. But it does run against the twin ideas that the debate itself doomed Biden and that Harris isn't a viable alternative. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
like everything else aside it is simply not a good look to self-assuredly write "xyz dooms the campaign" headlines 70 minutes after the event ends, before the effects are known, and it casts doubt on your coverage and your framing
Maybe I’m dense, but I’m not sure what you’re getting at? The post-debate polling seems to be vindicating the alarm about the objectively bad debate performance. Just going by RCP average, Trump is pulling away. Are you suggesting something to the contrary or did I miss it?
I skimmed that poll. It shows no change on the horse race but (as I recall) reflects a big shift in more concern about Biden’s age and more voters who see him as unfit. That’s what the alarm was about re his debate performance.
On Election Day, yes. The other data, though, points to cratering support. I’ve heard it anecdotally, too, among my friends who are Democrats. The damage from the debate is just beginning. That’s why I hope Biden makes a swift exit. It would be noble.
Neither one of us knows what the data will show next, but so far it is not consistent with “Biden is doomed”. I think I’ve talked myself into thinking Harris would be better, but the polls are not consistent with “Biden is doomed”.
Sorry for earlier confusion. This is (I think..) the poll I was thinking of. No trend lines, can’t vouch for how good it is, but the numbers are very bad. To be underwater on being “up for the job” is just a bad place to be politically when running for that job. www.surveyusa.com/client/PollR...
Ah shit. You’re right. I must’ve AI hallucinated it because it ain’t there. I was maybe kinda thinking of the Harvard/Harris poll, which had bad numbers on Biden performance, but no historical context to see the trend… My big point, though, is there’s an objective truth that it was very bad.
