Chris Wyman

@wymancr.bsky.social

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He/him. Probably the quietest person you know if you meet me.

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I'm team "Biden is visibly frail and I'd prefer he drops out in favor of Harris, but I'm not going to throw useless tantrums or despair over a decision I have no agency over."

Put another way, the only case I can see where forcing Biden out wouldn't engender blowback if he's literally incapable of executing his duties. And anyone with eyes can see that's nonsense.

It is perfectly fine to have concerns about Biden's age, stamina, and electability. It is not ok to repeat rw memes about dementia. And people should be aware if Biden is perceived to have been pushed out in a palace coup, instead of stepping down of his own accord, it's not going to end well.

My other marker is either Harris or Biden are completely fine and there's no data establishing either will guaranteed lose OR win. So the number one task of the party is to avoid the kind of nasty public fight that downed Carter, no matter what the naboobs in media say.

Gotta revive the cringey snowflake : avalanche analogy re voting. Your individual vote means almost nothing, but when everyone from political candidates on down to voters works together, we can crush the forces seeking to unmake our way of life.

I will say, the shock realization Trump could win and anger at many media, business, and power elites almost openly relishing the prospect was probably a necessary step toward awaking the sleeping giant of normies sick of this shit.

Putting down my marker: normies rejecting these freaks is going to be the thread that unites, and because that's boring our drama obsessed media will continue completely missing it.

Hmm. So it seems the media-driven despair over a far right triumph was premature. Interesting. Almost as if... but surely not, I've been assured they're just objectively reporting facts.

Also feeling a little envious of the Shadow Cabinet system. Fuck our lame duck transition period.

Even an empty suit like Starmer can be a vast improvement when the other choice is bottomless sociopathic evil.

Was Britain really planning to ship illegal immigrants to Rwanda? - Kevin Drumjabberwocking.com News from Britain: Sir Keir Starmer has killed off the Rwanda deportation plan on the first day of his premiership Labour insiders confirmed to The Telegraph that the scheme to deport migrants who a...

Even an empty suit like Starmer can be a vast improvement when the other choice is bottomless sociopathic evil.

Aaaanyway, I'm going to take my own advice. The people freaking out are not going to stop freaking out any time soon (especially with provocateurs stirring the pot), so all we can do is gut it out. Either Biden drops or something else will cause a vibe shift. Hopefully before a convention shitshow.

This is also an excellent point. Contra all the conspiracy thinking, anyone can run in most presidential primaries as long as they meet the filing requirements. That no one serious tried should be an indication they didn't think a challenge on whatever policy grounds would work.

if you’re going on and on about how Biden should step down and it’s because he bothers you for some other reason than fitness or electability I’m just gonna block you, thanks. we have processes for those gripes and unless your issue is crypto or crystals you didn’t even try

I don't know that polling during vacation season is going to improve the already abysmal response rate any, so we should probably be cautious either way instead of dooming or getting irrationally exuberant. Feels like I'm spitting into the wind on this one.

This right here, and making big campaign decisions on the assurances the media will like them is dumb. The only things that matter are who the candidate adds to and who the candidate subtracts from the coalition. And we should not be strongly confident this is a good trade.

if you’re playing the wrong-rock game about Biden doing events at which he campaigns normally and demonstrates that he’s not senile, I kind of think the onus is on you to reassure people like me that you’re not going to wrong-rock Nominee Harris

Anyway, the media is bad but I don't think it's as simple as they like Republicans and want them to win. It's that they don't acknowledge their own biases and hide behind the View From Nowhere. It's that their incentives are to herd around cultural manias because that's where the clicks and rts are.

Put another way, I'd be more impressed with the media's claim the health of the nominees is an important issue if they gave even a modicum of scrutiny over Trump's obviously ludicrous health statements and age. Instead they're hyperfocused on Scandal! The Musical.

This is why I'm tired of the amateur campaign strategizing. Every decision caries costs and benefits and it's rarely as clear cut as pundits say. And it's also irrelevant to your choice as a voter. This entire discourse as political hobbyism run amok, including from people making big bucks in media.

If your argument is Biden is 100% guaranteed to lose and anybody other candidate isn't, sorry, but that's just vibes. Even if we don't unskew the polls, Biden is well within the historical margin for a come from behind win. There's no getting out of this being a gamble either way.

Multiple things can be true at the same time: Many of the people attacking Biden are hacks with axes to grind Biden really has lost a step and all else equal, Harris can deliver a crisper message But also there is no panacea for the media we have or an electorate drunk on Trumpstalgia

Coming back around to people needing to stop acting like they were born yesterday. It's fucking clear at this point that the knives are out because certain factions are unhappy that the president isn't hanging on their every word and have found a perfect vehicle to concern troll.

The reason I'm 55% is it's the only move that can neutralize the age issue. The reason I'm not 100% is Harris doesn't poll that much better, and we can suspect a lot of people will find another complaint, ie "too liberal" or "not THAT woman." I guess thinking around corners isn't popular.

Cards on the table, I'm at about 55% Biden should pass the baton to Harris, but the amount of bad logic from the "fuck Biden, but leftishly" side is driving me nuts. Nothing is certain, people are way overconfident this will be a seamless handover and certainly the media will just move the goalposts

I don't know what people are expecting. No candidate can promise to make Trump go away, not with ~half the country in a cult. All you can do is make your best case, whether you're Biden, Harris, or anyone else and hope the voters agree. Anything else is not democracy.

"I think he's making a horrible mistake, I wish he'd reconsider, but given the stakes I'll do everything to return Biden and Harris to the White House if that's our path" Why is this so fucking hard for people?

To be clear, I don't think 120 hours a week is a reasonable expectation for a 45 year old either. We know from extensive study even people in peak mental fitness rapidly lose cognitive bandwidth after a couple of days of sleep deprivation. It's a sign of cultural sickness that we call this weakness.

We have fallen so, so far from the kinds of tough but fair questions you saw put to the candidates in the 1984 debates, for instance. Unserious.

Too many people confuse gossip with effective political organizing. Persuading me Biden has (or doesnt have) dementia has no bearing on whether or not we beat back fascism and communicates your real interest is scoring Internet Points. It's not actionable information now that the primary is over.

Look, there's a good faith argument Biden should step down in favor of Harris. But convincing people not to vote or whatever isn't how you make the case. Realistically the only people who matter are his family, closest advisers, and like Clyburn and the other colleagues who made him.

1. A pressure campaign from rich elites was never going to work. 2. Telegraphing you're going to shred Harris unless Dems give you the convention shitshow you've been salivating over for more than a year undercuts any rationale for stepping aside.

Absolutely no one in the Democratic party would care about a bad debate in June and some sketchy anecdotes if polls showed Biden was clearly ahead the whole time. Unfortunately we can't know ahead of time if the polls are right or not.

Imagining the Discourse in 2020 if polls hadn't had an incredibly pro-D bias and they'd accurately reflected the nail biter we actually had in the tipping point state. That's the backdrop of all this handwringing, and it really feels like we've forgotten polls can be wrong the other direction too.