bac5665

@bac5665.bsky.social

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Banking attorney and politics junkie. My hobby is collecting hobbies and suffering from ADhD. He/him. Dog and cat dad.

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Why should anyone vote in a Democratic primary again if senior party officials view the result as non-binding?

Reply to

knabepicer.bsky.social

I didn't say we shouldn't participate in a democracy, or that it's pointless. It's necessary. It just isn't enough. We have to keep voting until either the conservatives crack or there's a civil war.

Reply to

JoyousPanther

It is. It's a big deal that the Dem leadership is trying to overturn the primaries in order to damage the Democratic nominee. The nominee who is winning, by the way: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-electio... But I don't think that means it hasn't been decided. Just that D leadership is bad.

Reply to

JoyousPanther

The decision was already made, via the primaries. Then Biden decided it again last week. It's already been decided, at least twice.

Reposted by

bac5665

But SCOTUS said presidents have total immunity

President Biden has tested positive for COVID

Reply to

Nicholas Bauer PhD

As opposed to the certainty of a poll of Trump +1 with a margin of error of +-3? All the evidence is that this race is basically tied. Just like in 2020 and 2016. Replacing Biden over those numbers is insane.

Reply to

Nicholas Bauer PhD

It is. It's reflecting changing polls. Obviously the *polls* haven't had a 10 point swing, and I'm not suggesting that they have. But this model is telling us the *odds* of victory, and that's more important (and more accurate) than the polls.

Reply to

Chris

What do you call a 10 point gain over a week?

Reply to

Nicholas Bauer PhD

Ok, if that's the distinction you want to hang your hat on, fine. The point is that right now, Biden is more likely to win than not. And he has the momentum. I don't understand why we would change nominees under those circumstances.

It literally says that if the election were held today, Biden would have a 54% chance of winning, compared with Trump's 46%. That's called being ahead in the race. It's obviously a narrow lead, but it's a lead. And the biggest lead Biden has had.

Reply to

Ric Steinberger

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-electio... Or, in reality, the most accurate election model we have says that Biden is winning right now.

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?projects.fivethirtyeight.com 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Joe Biden’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.

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bac5665

Reply to

Micah

my perspective remains “we are obviously in an existential war and the last thing you do in one of those is go around telling everybody on your side that we’re fucked and we can’t win”

Reply to

Ric Steinberger

No polling supports that prediction. It's far more likely that Biden makes up a 2 point deficit than it is we survive a candidate swap.

Reply to

Nicholas Bauer PhD

The only way I see is to stop attacking the nominee.

Reply to

Pwnallthethings

I think history shows us that those 30% will turn to violence rather than accept permanent defeat. Electoral victory is also extremely difficult in America, and probably impossible. Winning that many elections, over and over again, is much less likely than civil war or conservative victory.

Reply to

Max Berger

I don't give a damn who the nominee is, I'm just convinced that replacing the nominee will be seen as a sign of weakness and the story will be Dems in disarray until the election. I don't care if 100% of people want Biden to step aside. I don't see any way to do it without causing a fatal wound.

Reply to

Pwnallthethings

You can't have a democracy where 1/3 rejects the personhood of another 1/3. Yes, the Dems can show the Republicans that it's unwise to reject that personhood, but at some point the Republicans have to choose to participate in good faith. Otherwise, we'll keep doing this until we give up and separate

Reply to

Ric Steinberger

The Democrats cannot win unless Biden stays the nominee, so that can't be right. If Biden withdraws, the only story will be that Democrats are too disorganized to figure out their nominee via the primaries. The media will hang that on Harris and she'll never recover.

Reply to

Pwnallthethings

The problem with that message is that 1) only the Republicans can repair America, by choosing to stop being fascist and 2) voters simply refuse to believe what the Republicans straightforwardly promise to do. So I'm not sure that message would help Biden.

Reposted by

bac5665

I think a reason I'm pretty comfortable with holding the two ideas in my head together that 1) it would be really good if joe biden wins the election against donald trump and 2) its probably not a great idea for joe biden to be the nominee to do this is that I already did it once before in 2020.

Reposted by

bac5665

Everybody also needs to watch this reel from “liberal redneck” comedian Trae Crowder who has some personal experience with Vance www.instagram.com/reel/C9febBe...

Trae Crowder on Instagram: "JD Vance hates hillbillies #traecrowder #sorryIfilmedthislastnight #seemelive #linkwherethelinksgo"www.instagram.com 3,678 likes, 141 comments - officialtraecrowder on July 16, 2024: "JD Vance hates hillbillies #traecrowder #sorryIfilmedthislastnight #seemelive #linkwherethelinksgo".

The best time was 24 years ago. The second best time is now. Let's get this political fight started, then let's go win it. It's only the entire future of the country at stake, after all.

Overdue and not enough but: Let’s fucking go.

Reposted by

bac5665

Reply to

Sarah J. Jackson

One more thing. This is why so many Black users have stayed on X despite, long before the discourse noticed his awfulness, having nicknamed Musk “Apartheid Clyde.” People go where their people are, they migrate for community. (I know “community” has been a hard to grasp concept on here.)

I'm so sorry. I've never met you, but I am very glad you're here!

Reply to

Robert Black

1) I completely understand and have used the Hamilton soundtrack to a similar purpose. 2) this is super-duper cringe.

Reposted by

bac5665

“The South really did not lose [the Civil War] when it came to maintaining this form of free labor.” New from Josephine Lee and Michelle Pitcher in our magazine, tracing two centuries of forced labor in Texas: #slavery

Texas’ Plantation Prisons: Inside a 200-Year History of Forced Labor Shrouded in Secrecytexasobserver.org Punishments, injuries, and deaths—including from heat—on TDCJ farms are more hidden than they were in the years following convict leasing.

Huh. Am I dumb, or is Trump dumb? Who's to say?

Right. Trump wants a fanatically devoted VP who can't possibly have a political base independent of Trump. Vance is a soulless, ambitious demon who doesn't appear to be devoted to anything other than himself. So it won't be Vance.

Reposted by

bac5665

Really struggling to understand why both the mainstream media and Democratic leadership are finding it so hard right now to express what I think is a fairly basic point. Political violence is bad and a second Trump presidency means more of it. www.garbageday.email/p/yet-anothe...

Reposted by

bac5665

Just staring at my law degree wondering why I spent six figures on something that turns out to be “just vibes!!!!!”