all i said was the betting markets changed a lot more than the polls. there's money to be made if u believe this will all blow over. the way predictit works, if you bought now and then everyone forgets and the sentiment goes back to normal, you can sell+profit before the election. gambling is dumb.
Seriously the most significant determinant of the price on “Will Biden be the nominee?” should be the treasury bond interest rate discounted for the odds of Biden dying. That’s it.
I remember how after the 2020 election the betting markets were giving like a 20-30% chance Trump was gonna win several states that had already been called literally weeks before. I no longer look at the markets!
they do tend to have a bit of a breakdown when politicians have cults of personality around them, because then they become meme stocks.
most of the people buying GameStop weren't actually savvy investors, but wanted to be part of something. Trump cultists buy Trump futures to signal Trump loyalty.
I mean, that sounds like a bug tho, right? the payout occurs when the event happens. so even if they allowed you to somehow bet on something whose deadline passed, you'd never be able to collect. unless I misunderstand you.
Using PredictIt as any indicator ignores the fact that a month after the election in 2020 you could still get Biden at like 86 cents.
There is a ton of dumb money on that website.
