Mark Chadbourn: (I don’t know. It’s never happened before.)

NEW Survation MRP: Labour on Course to Win 484 seats. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition. Probabilistic seat count: LAB 484 CON 64 LD 61 SNP 10 RFM 7 PC 3 GRN 3 34,558 interviews conducted online and on the telephone

Professor Paula Surridge of Bristol Uni says you should take this one seriously as all the modelling has been done by Chris Hanratty who did all the constituency-level breakdowns after the referendum.

Remember, at this level those seats separating Tory and Lib Dem will be super-marginal. Shouldn’t take much to move them.

What happens if they're tied on seat numbers, who gets to be OO.

(I don’t know. It’s never happened before.)

They’ve got to do bungee jumps. Davey has secretly been planning this all along.

😂

Enough opportunists would defect to LibDem at the slightest breeze. Surely there's enough of a faction to hold the Tories hostage if they didnt, then do it anyway.

My idle thoughts wonder about some labour MPs defecting to the Lib-Dems. They should have enough MPs to chose their opposition.

I hope we're doing these kinds of calculations Friday morning to keep the Tories out of opposition. They are taking on some really horrible characteristics of shouty US conservatism, and I'm tired of pretending they are arguing in good faith.

That seems possible from the Lib Dems if the Tories tack hard(er) right within a few months of the election. The potential for that would create massive instability for the Tories. Also a formal LibDem-Green pact could tip that over the edge, forcing a formal Tory-Reform pact as a reaction.

Another thought is that the DUP throw their lot into the ring with the Tories to keep them ahead of the Lib Dems plus Greens.

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