NEW Survation MRP: Labour on Course to Win 484 seats.
The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition.
Probabilistic seat count:
LAB 484
CON 64
LD 61
SNP 10
RFM 7
PC 3
GRN 3
34,558 interviews conducted online and on the telephone
Professor Paula Surridge of Bristol Uni says you should take this one seriously as all the modelling has been done by Chris Hanratty who did all the constituency-level breakdowns after the referendum.
Enough opportunists would defect to LibDem at the slightest breeze. Surely there's enough of a faction to hold the Tories hostage if they didnt, then do it anyway.
I hope we're doing these kinds of calculations Friday morning to keep the Tories out of opposition. They are taking on some really horrible characteristics of shouty US conservatism, and I'm tired of pretending they are arguing in good faith.
That seems possible from the Lib Dems if the Tories tack hard(er) right within a few months of the election. The potential for that would create massive instability for the Tories.
Also a formal LibDem-Green pact could tip that over the edge, forcing a formal Tory-Reform pact as a reaction.
The Ministerial and Salaries Act 1975 says it will be determined by the Speaker: www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1975/27
But in practice, they may well balance the OO privileges (PMQs etc.) between the main opposition parties.
