I’ve been doing normal American things so correct me if I’m wrong but it sure seems like Reform and the Torries are splitting a lot of votes which is why Labor is feasting? Am I wrong here?
unfortunately, it seems not even being convicted of 34 felonies can get the GOP to eat themselves, whereas a bad debate can send the entire left coalition into a week long panic
A Dem trifecta would definitely do it, which is actually entirely possible in a reverse 2016 situation (polls overrate Trump, Trump voters split ticket because it seems obvious Trump will win and they want "balanced government," diehard anti-Trump voters go straight D on the ballot).
If this happens against Biden, recriminations that MAGA is such a loser movement it lost to decrepit Joe Biden, twice.
If it happens against another nominee, , GOP will have recriminations about "why we couldn't move on in 4 years while Dems moved on in 4 weeks."
Trump's court cases will...
... force multiple "defend/disavow" cycles for the GOP. MAGA itself fractures over whether it's about transgressive lightweight vibes or hard policy goals - basically the Charlie Kirk/Daily Wire chuds feud with the Steve Miller/Russ Vought Project 2025 sociopaths.
It's plausible, IMO.
Having a populace that actually cares about when a politician crosses the line does help. Of course, being the UK, these scandals are more like "put money on the date of the next election" rather than "made state secrets available for sale", and honestly, good on them for that
And, conversely, if you and others with whom you share a common enemy start eating each other, all kinds of nightmares can result. Leftists and liberals, let us please, PLEASE understand that.