Aubrey Gilleran: It basically stops the judge train and requires Sotomayor and Kagan to remain on the court for another four (and possibly 8-12) years, which is why I think one of them needs to retire at the end of this term.

It will be kind of an interesting ~problem if Labour has such a huge majority that almost half their MPs are all but certain to lose re-election next normal election

Another MRP from Find Out Now. Labour: 450 Lib Dems: 71 Con: 60 SNP: 24 Reform: 18 (!) Green: 4 PC: 4 www.mirror.co.uk/news/politic...

Bombshell poll shows Tories pushed into third place behind Lib Demswww.mirror.co.uk The MRP poll of almost 20,000 people projects the Tories will be left with just 60 MPs as twenty Cabinet ministers are ousted at the General Election including Rishi Sunak

Labour heading for a 2006/2008 Dem-style victory where they have a limited window for a blank check before the inevitable backlash hits.

This arguably explains a bit of the 2020 underperformance in the U.S., too. Democrats had *such* a historically good 2018 that they really couldn't defend all those seats with presidential turnout, but they got left with a pretty unified House coalition that was insanely productive in 2021-2022.

I guess I was the weird guy out in 2020 cause I thought Dems would lose seats. Dems had a national margin of D+8 in 2018, polls were settling around Biden+7. That implied a small loss. Same deal this year. Polls showed Biden/Trump tied against R+3 in 2022. Republicans are gonna lose seats.

this logic implicitly assumes constant districts, though, and they’re not

Deleted earlier reply cause I thought we were still talking about Parliament. Yes I think NC redistricting throws a wrench in that. Too many Republican flips have nothing to do with redistricting though, they do have some strong incumbents. Holding the House is far from a sure thing for them.

Biden winning but House and Senate flipping sides in opposite directions would be a deeply frustrating result 🙃

Yeah. It's also the most likely outcome right now in my view.

I can live with it! Frustrating is right though

It basically stops the judge train and requires Sotomayor and Kagan to remain on the court for another four (and possibly 8-12) years, which is why I think one of them needs to retire at the end of this term.

There's a very funny scenario where Thomas isn't the court and it just stays at 5-3 for awhile.

Honestly the funnier one would be either alito or Roberts who are both about the same age as my parents.

not completely out of the question for Dems to gain a Senate seat or two in '26. Dems are defending two seats Biden won by <5 (GA, MI) and two more he won by <10 (MN, NH), R's are defending one seat Biden won by 9 (ME), one he lost by <5 (NC), and he lost TX and IA by <10...ok that's pretty remote.

Yeah, I'm just putting Texas and Iowa off the table in a Biden midterm. A Trump midterm, however, at least puts Texas on the board.

(As always, with the asterisk of how free our elections actually get to be in a second Trump administration.)

after the last midterm I'm not absolutely certain that a Biden midterm generates backlash, though the last time a two-term president had two good midterms was probably never. Given trends I have no hope for IA but TX... will remain forever the great purple whale idk maybe an IA special gets weird

(I was just like "I can't remember who replaced Grassley")

I doubt this will work if the Senate margin is narrow

I think a lot of it will depend on who the leader is. I could see someone like Cornyn, if he's the leader, push for Biden to nominate someone like Irma Ramirez (60-year-old moderate Cornyn and Cruz both supported for the Fifth Circuit) in the same way Lindsey Graham was pushing for Michelle Childs.

But I don't think they'll let Biden get his preferred choice. It'll be a battle. A lot will depend on how much the administration is willing to give in.

It's underappreciated just how much the GOP senators (in good faith or not) have floated older, more moderate, but diverse choices for circuit seats only to have Biden ignore them and advance younger ACLU attorneys and public defenders. Obama caved in a lot of those battles even before 2014.

Also depends on size of the majority. If Dems hold the damage to just 51 Rs, then that's a GOP majority dependent on whether Susan Collins decides to run again in 2026.

Somewhat. If it's Biden sixth-year midterm (historically pretty bad for the WH's party), Republicans can target Georgia and Michigan (with Minnesota, New Hampshire, Virginia, New Mexico, and Colorado as reaches). Democrats will only have Maine and North Carolina as pickup opportunities.

My suspicion is that WV, OH, and MT flip and nothing else, getting us to 51, yeah. Making assumptions: if 2026 is a typical midterm yeah for a Democratic President, Republicans probably keep Collins and pick up GA and MI, making it 53. Meh.

Even if she retires, it's 52. Kemp is likely running against Ossoff, and he'll be formidable in a midterm. I think this year's Michigan Senate race will tell us a lot about whether Michigan Republicans have the juice to win a Senate race there anymore.

if Trump loses, I think Kemp has his eye on '28

i remain pretty bullish on Montana

put it this way, the recent partisan R polls that are getting leaked have it at a tie

Georgia's going to have an R primary problem in '26

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