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now that's interesting
CNN's new poll: Trump leads Biden 49/43. Trump leads Harris 47/45. Some differences: —Independents: Biden -10%. Harris +3%. —People of color: Biden +21. Harris +29. The side-by-side:
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I agree with pretty much everybody pointing out the difficulties and perils of Biden dropping out, but it seems pretty clear that the "lol debates don't matter" argument is pure cope, just whistling past the graveyard.
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well, there is strong evidence that debates don't change much, but hysterical hair-on-fire media panics definitely do, and that's what has been happening for the last several days
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Seriously, usually a poor debate performance isn't followed by a full-court multi-day, all-hands Claudine-Gaying from the paper of record.
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i mean, it kind of is? look up the headlines after obama’s first incumbency debate
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I mean, there were headlines, but here we have the editorial board, Goldberg, Kristof, Krugman, and more all taking turns insisting that there is no choice but for Biden to end his campaign, that's some different sauce.
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goldberg doesn’t even know how replacing the nominee would work and kristof’s column was pre-written, which we know because he forgot to update the URL and it was published 40m after the debate ended
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i take kruggles and jamelle seriously with their commentary. could not care less what goldberg or kristof or any of the rest think
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which isn’t to say i’d necessarily agree with their takes (don’t think jamelle has come down one way or the other yet?), but they’re smart and thoughtful and don’t have dc cocktail circuit brain damage
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As far as I can suss out from his socials, Bouie is firmly anti-dropout, thinks Biden should tell everyone to get bent and keep running for president because the fundamentals haven't changed.
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i think it’s more wait and see + this would be incredibly and dangerously disruptive, but i won’t put words in his mouth
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The examples of disrupting a ticket at this point in the process are... not historically good
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i mean none of this is good obviously. it’s just “can joe win it - and if not can kamala?”
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Right, and polling of actual candidates instead of the Mystery Candidate show their levels of support about equal, and better than any other Dem in particular. There's an affirmative case to be made that you'd improve on Biden and it's being ignored by the noise-makers.
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the issue people are running into is they’re imagining a different candidate offers a completely fresh start when in fact any alternative to biden is going to be limited to a certain range by biden imo
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could they do better than him? could be. are we talking 10 points better? no. and they *could* well do worse
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Exactly. We had a primary and that was a time for a true alternative to build a national campaign apparatus and build name recognition and support, and instead we got this guy faceplanting by sixty points to write-in campaigns. There is no third option, there is Biden or Harris.
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*Yoda voice* no... there is... another
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no jeb!’s in crucial waukeshire right now looking at drapes for downing street
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honestly they could do worse.
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I certainly do not care for his record as governor of Florida but he was a competent administrator. plus his friendship with an older generation of Brit politician makes a return to the EU more likely.
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They've spent the last 14 years doing substantially worse
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oh no he’d be worse. jeb!’s demeanor suggests moderation and competence but he’s a religious freak too
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I do not believe there is a requirement the prime minister be a citizen of the United Kingdom?
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it’s just impossible for me to imagine choosing anybody other than harris without nuking the coalition for the numerous obvious reasons if they have to make a change, harris is the only shot, and we all have to hope to god she meets the moment