The Book of the Void

@eddyrobinson.bsky.social

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Strategic Analysis
Networks, communities, and media are terrain
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Reply to

Brian Hughes

tbqh this heuristic has completely changed my worldview since I came across it a few years back. Obviously it's just one paper, but the high N and some good follow-up works have made it into my simplifyin' yardstick of choice.

Reply to

Andrew Trexler

Ah I missed that detail - thanks a lot!

Reply to

J.M. Berger

I am once again tapping the sign to remind readers that people self-sort into one of only 5 categories: win-win optimists, loss-minimizing pessimists, envious non-cooperators, self-sacrificers, and the randomly confused. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Humans display a reduced set of consistent behavioral phenotypes in dyadic gameswww.science.org Lab-in-the-field experiment reveals that humans display a reduced set of consistent behavioral phenotypes in dyadic games.

Forgot to mention that 'envious non-cooperators' is the single largest group at about 30%, and I don't think it's a coincidence that this similar to the percentage of people that are for Trump no matter what he says or does.

Reply to

Baleful Tom

I think they're going to notice before that if one of the two candidates changes unless they completely have their head stuck in a bucket. It would be more obvious than (for example) Trump's near-miss the other day.

毎日同じオムレツあまり良くない、料理するのはまだ難しい

毎日同じオムレツ今日はオムレツが基本です。昨日手を怪我して病院に行かなければなりませんでした。だいじょうぶだけど野菜などを切るのは苦痛です。 1週間もウェイトリフティングができないなんて…ヤバイ

Reply to

The Lady Halibut

This is just grandstanding, but then you could say that about the whole paper

Reply to

Tech Policy Press

These are just true for any similar event, no? - mistaken identities - allegations of coverup - allegations of insider involvement - attribution of responsibility to enemies - suggestion it was faked etc. etc.

Reply to

Andrew Trexler

Perplexed that you didn't offer a label option of 'independent' when so many people self-identify that way online (very common in recent years among MAGA types who were dissatisfied with the RNC).

Reply to

southpaw

I think these polls are kind of useless. Trend changes following an event typically seem to manifest after a week. Right after an event, people are still reacting to it and trying to assess its significance, if any. I met some friends on Friday who were entirely unaware of the whole debate thing.

Reply to

Silly B Man

Unclear on the concept

Reply to

John Brown stan account

the convention chooses the nominee. Nobody else has standing. the end.

Reply to

Baleful Tom

I think the EV of a change is positive because you get a novelty bump and a (short) honeymoon, and if the replacement hits the ground running and attacks from a new angle daily, that's news. 'people tuning in October' Why are you assuming this would happen in October 🤔

/card b

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運動、お勉強

Grey: look we need to be sure about this for reasons White: vibes are so good it's contagious Are you doing a LOTR version of the thing you did a few years back with The Office? Because that was very educational even though I never got into the show.

Reply to

Radley Balko

The USA is gonna absolutely sweep the medals in mental gymnastics this year

Reply to

Radley Balko

Yond Cassius has a lean and hungry look; He thinks too much: such men are dangerous.

Reply to

/card b

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毎日同じオムレツ昨日はニュースを見ながら食事写真を忘れた日曜日オムレツが有りません

毎日同じオムレツ今日は完璧に見えます

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Legit

But who doesn't know that Trump is a pathological liar? 'temperamental unfitness' is not some magical phrase that will suddenly lead to a mass epiphany. The problem is that there are tens of millions of assholes. About 1/3 of the population share his views and vote as a bloc.

Trump could die tomorrow and those people would quickly coalesce around someone else. They're assholes, they're densely organized (not least because of the internet), they vote with dollars and guns, and liberals are afraid of taking them on because they might get hurt.

Reply to

大文字(Ｐ)✨🦋🌈🦁🐰👧🌈✨🦋✨

Reply to

/card b