Everything's complicated and my hesitation about replacing Biden up to now has been informed by polls showing other candidates not doing much better. But a lot of people seem remarkably certain that Harris specifically could not win a general election for reasons I think they should say out loud.
There's a very specific personal vulnerability there that I'm surprised hasn't come up much on the right, but my sense is that doubt here is more about, uh, demographic concerns that haven't really been fleshed out or justified explicitly. Could be wrong.
This is very valid and true, but if the choice is between her a guy who cannot reliably complete sentences without a teleprompter...I dunno, man.
bsky.app/profile/lewm...
To be fair, the last time she was in a national election, everyone thought she would be a formidable candidate but she did terribly, and was widely considered a surprisingly poor campaigner. So there is a data point.
Anyway, if Biden stays in, which seems likely, I don't think telling people "no, he's fine, actually" for the next several months is tenable. I don't know what you say instead. But openly lying to voters over and over again about something they know to be untrue probably hurts Dems long-term. So.
This is what the numbers have looked like for ages. Again, not especially promising for anyone. The question is whether anyone else would be more likely to gain ground between now and November. bsky.app/profile/perr...
Laying my cards on the table: I think a black woman can definitely win and also that Harris is weak. She's tied to the Biden record and a mediocre campaigner; the Willie Brown thing is genuinely messy. Zero chance GOP opps don't know about it; the fact they haven't used it yet does scare me a bit.
If Trump is as dire a threat as they say he is (and I agree), then all options have to be on the table. The party HAS to stop clinging to norms in a state of emergency.
It’s not ideal, but I think a negotiated ticket with leadership from various factions, would lead to the best result.
Third, Biden, who has been performing terribly as president and leader of the coalition for almost two years, can still rally a close loss due to anti Trump fervor.
Replace him with somebody who can string a sentence together, look vital, and hasn’t insulted wide swaths of the necessary coalition.
Also, this would allow for some real vetting. Are you currently having an affair? The country hangs in the balance. Is your nose clean on business dealings? Don’t lie to us, it’s an emergency, and we’ll keep your secret, just not elevate you to candidate.
What’s fantasy is thinking that an 81-year-old man who has fractured his own coalition and is clearly diminished is the best chance of withstanding a fascist takeover.
A fascist takeover, I will add that has accelerated under his watch and due to his poor decisions.
If he'd fractured his own coalition someone viable would have run against him in the primary and people wouldn't be engaging in online fantasy writing in July of the election year.
He’s been down to Trump for years, been slaughtering Muslims gleefully for six months, insulted young voters and activists at every opportunity.
You are in absolute denial. As is the Democratic Party and it’s going to get a lot of people killed when Trump makes his return.
The negotiated ticket? First, elite cues: let Bernie, AOC, Pritzker, Cooper, and Newsom go to their wings of the party and make the case for a choice they were included on.
Second, emphasize the state of emergency. It’s too late in the battle to be bound by decisions made in 2020, let alone 1968.
It works in many countries and worked until 1968. Notice how the quality of Democratic President has dropped off significantly in the primary era.
It is a gamble, but it less of a gamble than rolling the dice with a candidate who feels like he’s dying, or a VP that has not meaningfully been chosen
Well I gave it a shot. Have fun losing the election or the subsequent coup that Biden won’t stop. Gonna start putting my energy toward surviving a second Trump term.
