Mitchell Epner: If I were a Democratic pollster, I would be doing daily polling on: "Should Donald Trump drop out of the race in light of his conviction on 34 felonies?" I see this as a way to shift the Overton Window. The first poll I saw on that question has 49% of Independents saying Trump should drop out now.

If I were a Democratic pollster, I would be doing daily polling on: "Should Donald Trump drop out of the race in light of his conviction on 34 felonies?" I see this as a way to shift the Overton Window. The first poll I saw on that question has 49% of Independents saying Trump should drop out now.

Should Republicans nominate a convicted felon, or an adjudicated rapist? Oh, wait. That's the same person.

Are you trying to trick us ? 😂

Great suggestion!!! And I agree, for the good of the country, we need a concerted strategy to shift the Overton window on this election. washingtonmonthly.com/2024/05/30/d...

Donald Trump Should Drop Out | Washington Monthlywashingtonmonthly.com We’ve had months of calls for Joe Biden to drop out because of middling poll numbers. The grounds for a Trump withdrawal are far firmer.

#TrumpDropOut bsky.app/profile/math...

You know, a lot of people are saying that, and a lot of people are saying that felonies are bad things, out there. #TrumpDropOut

Wow, that poll is really interesting. 54% of registered voters "strongly" or "somewhat" approve of the guilty verdict compared to 34% who "strongly or "somewhat" disapprove. 49% of Independents and 15% of Republicans said Trump should end his campaign because of the conviction."

Poll: 49% of Independents think Trump should drop out post-guilty verdictwww.axios.com The poll offers the first clues about how voters are reacting to the unprecedented situation.

The best part of continuously asking that question is that republicans will tie themselves ever tighter to him. The more you insist they let him go, the more they love him

So be it. Those are not persuadable voters. The ones on the fence are the target, and without a constant reminder more of them will swing to Trump. This is exactly how the J6 aftermath has been. One side was quiet, and the one that shouted loudly gained control of the narrative.

Yup. Crucial to repeatedly hammer that home. But, if the Democrats are true to form, they'll take the high road. That poll in 4-6 weeks will read lower. And when someone (me?) points that out, the conversation will be how polls are unreliable.

Do we want Republicans to nominate someone less polarizing than Trump, someone who could have a better chance of beating Biden?

I cannot imagine a world where Trump is pushed out of being GOP nominee. This is about influencing the conversation for the few true undecided voters.

Maybe unlikely, but still worried about a hypothetical where something does happen to his health or freedom and the Republicans pull out someone who's less of a disaster.

In the absence of convicted felon Donald Trump, I think it is much more likely that MAGA and the GOP splinter into multiple factions than that they coalesce around a new candidate. The only thing I know *for certain* about the future is that it has not happened yet.

They'd pick some fence-straddling governor or senator to become the nominee, I don't think things fracture in terms of a MAGA third party candidate (other than how RFK already is one). But I'm not so confident when they swap in DeSantis or Abbott etc., that person would perform dramatically better.

If he's named a running mate, which has to be coming up here soon, it'd be that person bumped up. But to be clear, literally the only scenario in which he's not the GOP nominee is if he dies. Not even if he's medically incapacitated, much less in jail. Full-blown dead and nothing else.

Nah, that’s not typically how cults work. I suspect that even if Trump died on the campaign trail, Republicans would still nominate and try to elect his corpse.

And always: who? Who from the GOP could step in who *hasn't* filled their Jerry-Garcia-decorated bong with That Convicted Felon's version of Ghost Train Haze and deeply inhaled?

Every statement or answer to a question from Biden or his representatives should be, "I am not a convicted felon, or been found guilty of sexual assault, or been ordered to pay hundreds of millions of dollars for violating various laws, but..."

Even if it somehow happened Trump supporters would lose their shit over it.

I can’t imagine there’s any alternative to him who would be close to as popular.

My fear is the people in the middle who are itching to vote for anyone but Biden or Trump and will go with Haley or any warm body the Republicans put up who isn't Trump.

A lot of the will. But a lot of the MAGA diehards won’t.

I do. Because I don't accept the premise of a less polarizing Republican in 2024. The replacement will be DeSantis or Abbott.

If Trump isn’t the nominee, their chances go way down - not up - because his large plurality of the base would immediately decide to write him in or boycott the election

I really hope so.

Should Republican legislators support a 34 time convicted felon in the upcoming elections?

BUT BIDEN = OLDZ

Something else: do you think Trump has any good grounds for appeal? Can he make a credible claim that the judge was favoring team prosecution for example?

bsky.app/profile/mitc...

I wrote a FAQ on the Trump verdict. I think it addresses most of the immediate questions. open.substack.com/pub/mitchell...

Donald Trump Found Guilty On All 34 Felony Countsopen.substack.com Sentencing Scheduled for July 11

When did I volunteer to have polls texted to me evert day, mostly implying that I’m not a Real Democrat because I’ve never participated or donated to the party. I wonder who Act Blue is giving my money to & why I get to vote in primaries.

I donated one time to actblue and my spam load skyrocketed.

And I keep Not Clicking on “please guilt me more” tabs…

Post