I did look at the crosstabs and it sure does seem like the numbers are resting on the idea that people who didn't vote in 2020 really prefer Trump. That means Zoomers are fascist, there's a big group of voters this time who didn't vote in the highest turnout election in 60 years, or polls are cooked
calling it now: whenever nate releases the nyt/sienna it's gonna have it neck and neck, probably a smallish trump lead, and that lead is going to be basically entirely from, oh, let's say, a 40 to 50 point shift R among nonwhite 18-29s.
I have been a soft "the polls are cooked" guy for a while admittedly but some things don't especially check out, like Trump winning 30% of the Black vote.
I'm a millennial but my phone has a spam blocker that doesn't even show me the calls that would be coming from a pollster. And NYT/Siena is all phone. You'd have a way better chance of reaching me via the Pew method of sending out physical mail asking you to participate online. I get mail!
As someone who falls in that age demographic the only time I've answered phone calls that aren't already in my contacts was when I was unemployed. This means that a pole that doesn't adjust for employment is going to be biased for people who don't have a job
I'm assuming that people who are unemployed are less happy with the incumbent than the average american, seeing as they don't have a job and might be inclined to blame politics for that as well as having less money
