Charm City Slicker (58-38): I have been a soft "the polls are cooked" guy for a while admittedly but some things don't especially check out, like Trump winning 30% of the Black vote.

I did look at the crosstabs and it sure does seem like the numbers are resting on the idea that people who didn't vote in 2020 really prefer Trump. That means Zoomers are fascist, there's a big group of voters this time who didn't vote in the highest turnout election in 60 years, or polls are cooked

calling it now: whenever nate releases the nyt/sienna it's gonna have it neck and neck, probably a smallish trump lead, and that lead is going to be basically entirely from, oh, let's say, a 40 to 50 point shift R among nonwhite 18-29s.

I have been a soft "the polls are cooked" guy for a while admittedly but some things don't especially check out, like Trump winning 30% of the Black vote.

I'm a millennial but my phone has a spam blocker that doesn't even show me the calls that would be coming from a pollster. And NYT/Siena is all phone. You'd have a way better chance of reaching me via the Pew method of sending out physical mail asking you to participate online. I get mail!

do Zoomers talk on the phone? Like would a Zoomer even answer their phone? from a strange number? I sometimes do, which I shouldn't. But I'm stupid

I get texts to participate in polls sometimes and there is absolutely 0% chance I would ever click any of the links. Odds are >95% it’s a scam. I’m not going to roll those dice.

my phone has a spam blocker - at least for text. I have Phone Link on my PC, so I get notifications sometimes for texts about election stuff but it never goes thru to the phone. But I never get calls from pollsters, rarely spam gets thru and I stupidly answer

The question is do the zoomers who do answer their phones have the same political preferences as other zoomers

And like, maybe. Idk. Either polls are broken or we're seeing a massive pro-fascism realignment, especially among young men. We'll see in four months

That’s where one would expect it to come from, eh? High school kids whose buddies’ drinkinest parents are their role models. “That guy gets us beers, he’s probably right about everything”.

well, they also name the same size shift among Black voters. and, it's the NYT. I know in the past this kind of shit has been hopium, but I'm gonna go with "broken." mind you this shit just makes it that much harder if we do win but the GOP inevitably pulls shenanigans, as they've promised

As someone who falls in that age demographic the only time I've answered phone calls that aren't already in my contacts was when I was unemployed. This means that a pole that doesn't adjust for employment is going to be biased for people who don't have a job

I'm assuming that people who are unemployed are less happy with the incumbent than the average american, seeing as they don't have a job and might be inclined to blame politics for that as well as having less money

Honestly, I would probably answer a poll sent via mail as long as the return postage was prepaid.

do Zoomers talk on the phone? Like would a Zoomer even answer their phone? from a strange number? I sometimes do, which I shouldn't. But I'm stupid

I’m gen x and I never answer numbers I don’t know. Hell, I usually let numbers I do know go to voicemail—I can always call my mom back if I need to

I’m a millennial so I only answer the phone for people I know but my zoomer cousin FaceTimes me with no warning and I panic each time. How does one generation who never answers our phones get followed by one that does video calls regularly?!

Gen X - I don’t answer at all. It’s on silent 24/7. Text & chat groups are my only real use of my personal phone. Work phone is locked down even more.

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