don't look now but Biden's narrowly up in the 538 average
"but the state polls"
the same state polls that show the D Senate candidates with healthy leads? those state polls?
there's been an extremely strong trend towards less split-ticket voting in recent elections
I have a hard time seeing that reverse as hard as the polls currently say it will
which I guess you could read either as a good sign for Biden or for R senate candidates
My mom was a long-term politically active Republican, of the liberal good-local-government variety, but she didn't vote for either Bush, much less Trump. (I'm not sure about Romney, though she preferred his dad.)
Personally I think Trump's only real genuine chance is like, another 2008 economic meltdown before November. Which could happen I guess, however unlikely.
No, this is just statistical noise. They are tied until there's a gap bigger than the MOE. Why it's such a close race is beyond me but trying to draw conclusions from tiny gaps like this is a waste of time. You are better off looking at cloud patterns.
The thing is mostly that people have been assuming a tie means Trump is actually definitely going to win. When it is like: no, that's not what a tie means.
