Pwnallthethings: and given that the US has 360m people, give or take, and--his numbers--this is a billion units a year in a market that--let's be real is going to be US dominated--we're saying every person in the US, man, woman, or child, needs to buy one or two $20k robots a year, every year

For those of you keeping track at home, that would be profits of ~4% of US GDP and revenue of ~8% of US GDP.

Musk apparently said Tesla will make robots for $10k, sell them for $20k, and capture 10% of a 1 billion unit/year market, making $1 trillion in annual profits. Bro can't even be bothered to make these numbers sound not pulled directly from his ass, this is like 11 year old level bullshitting.

for reference, his numbers project annual /profits/ that are about double /total/ US technology /revenues/

So for those numbers to make sense, you're looking at every time anyone anywhere, in business or in consumer electronics, in the United States spends ~ $1000 on any type of technology whatsoever, match that up in your head with them also spending $4000 on a tesla robot

and given that the US has 360m people, give or take, and--his numbers--this is a billion units a year in a market that--let's be real is going to be US dominated--we're saying every person in the US, man, woman, or child, needs to buy one or two $20k robots a year, every year

it's just the most incredibly obviously "pulled directly out of his ass" numbers, and yet everyone has to pretend this is real

it just drives me up the fucking wall why do we have to pretend this is real, why do we have to keep humoring this fucking guy I know the reasons but I hate it

exactly. it's just frankly offensive that anyone pretends that this is something more than an idiot making up numbers to sound cool

and it’s often coming from people who I know - I know! - know better than this

I know the tech press has to lose more faith but they're taking way longer than I thought they would

It's the same reason people listen to Trump. They think he's rich. And they think that that means something.

No wonder he and Trump get along so well....

Because he sets the bar of acceptable behavior for rich people. They like it to be as low as possible, so they will continue to enable him.

Sorry, not to imply you don't know this! I'm just screaming at clouds lol

Screw the numbers, the talk is essentially about creating robots so good, they wouldn't just replace the whole workforce, but multiply it. What's been shown so far: in intern in a tight suit, a wobbly bipedal (WHY?!) mess and a manipulator repeating the actions of the operator standing meters away.

There's a concept in investing called "building castles in the air". That perfectly captures Tesla investors under Musk.

And that's how it always ends eventually:

I like how this graph looks like it just fell through the floor into the basement

This is the kind of question they ask in consulting interviews to see if you understand orders of magnitude, like “how many windows in LA” or “how many bananas are shipped to NYC every day.” Musk would flunk an interview to be a junior hire at BCG.

Elon Musk not understand orders or magnitude? Inconceivable. He expresses everything in orders of magnitude

I just can’t. He’s an idiot.

You forget muskers don’t know math

terminal case of "buy a tomato and plant it to be a millionaire / just buy a swimming pool and rent it for $200k/day" tiktok math

I had a conversation with a “boomer investor of crypto” and i said Im not interested in crypto and theres plenty of other valued companies to invest in. I said I usually stay within 15-20% per year earnings. He laughed and said he can triple on crypto. His portfolio was 2grand.

Needing to buy one or two a year makes sense since im assuming they will spontaniously combust and thus need to be replaced

thankfully everyone in America has $40+k/yr to spend on discretionary robots

Skynet has shifted parameters such that their strategy is to just kill us with lethal incompetence

That and bankrupting us with shitty return policies

Maybe families could get a mortgage on one and have it build them an affordable house. (Absurd, but some company is probably pitching it to Y-Comb right now)

When you put it like that it sounds like a great business opportunity.

i almost believe that part "my robot would require replacing every three to six months" yeah fair

If he doesn't give himself discounts, he may spend that much himself to deal with his sexbots getting viruses.

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