e.w. niedermeyer: Musk apparently said Tesla will make robots for $10k, sell them for $20k, and capture 10% of a 1 billion unit/year market, making $1 trillion in annual profits. Bro can't even be bothered to make these numbers sound not pulled directly from his ass, this is like 11 year old level bullshitting.

“Like, who doesn’t want a C3PO, you know? You know, but a C3PO plus R2D2 plus, you know, plus plus. It would be pretty awesome. I think everyone in the world is going to want one. Like, literally everyone” actual Elon Musk quote, about a robot he claims will make Tesla worth $25 trillion

Who’s going to be the first to prove their loyalty to Musk by letting his robot babysit their kid?

Elon Musk Says Optimus Robot Will 'Babysit Your Kids' in Weirdest Prediction Yetgizmodo.com Musk predicted Tesla would reach a $25 trillion market cap thanks to robotics.

It's like one fictional character, plus another fictional character, plus multiple other undefined things that we'll let your imagination fill in. Clearly this is worth trillions of dollars, and I am a very serious person.

Elon just DMed me, turns out those other "pluses" were intended to convey the fact that, in addition to being like C3PO and R2D2, the Optimus robot will also be just like Yoda and Spock and Blade Runner from "Blade Runner"

Musk apparently said Tesla will make robots for $10k, sell them for $20k, and capture 10% of a 1 billion unit/year market, making $1 trillion in annual profits. Bro can't even be bothered to make these numbers sound not pulled directly from his ass, this is like 11 year old level bullshitting.

getting lazy and not making his numbers multiples of 420 or 69

Or 14 words

tesla robotics! perfect for anyone ages 14-88!

Too nice to like

his brain is mush, he's no longer able to handle non-round numbers.

Agh! Dilemma. Like the post? Or not …

Should've just reposted it 419 more times.

Let's get it to 666 likes and stop.

musk: what if you bought 10 tomato plants

That's got to be a piss-take. Just has to be. I refuse to believe that any human being could be that stupid.

I remember this tweet and everyone taking the PISS out of him lololol

No. He really was.

Gardening is an expensive ass hobby and lot of your plants die until you get good at it.

How long before the entire universe is tomatoes?

If tomatoes were paperclips www.decisionproblem.com/paperclips/i...

www.decisionproblem.com . . . .

Web on desktop is free, or was the last time I played it.

🤣

There's a PG Wodehouse character who says something a lot like that, and it's to show how gullible and naive he is

I think I was remembering the ITV version, but here's the original. It even mentions scale!

Those are very expensive tomatoes.

Hah, that too

TBF, this takes into account no resources, costs, labor, marketing, storage, transportation… to say nothing of public safety & international protections unknown since Rome (damn it), weather, shrinkage, or public tastes exactly like Musk does business.

We should take this guy’s MBA away from him, or make him do his calculations in tulip bulbs.

also dude thinks there is only one seed per tomato

🤦‍♀️

tech media, and stonks guys: oh, of course, we certainly have no reason to examine any of this critically!

robotics is a famously easy space to make lots of money in and general-purpose robotics plays always work out well, what could there possibly be here to examine critically?

When he says he’s going to sell a billion robots he literally means he’s going to get 10,000 rubes to send him $20k each on the promise of a future robot that will get us all to the next grift phase

once he gets his $56b who cares, it's just like mars, he can just show some shitty demos and say more stuff indefinitely, if the cybertruck proved anything it's that actually going into production is the worst move

ugly robots made of cheap sheet metal with sharp edges that rust if they even get lightly sprinkled with water (don't feed them after midnight, either)

NUMBER GO [sounds of robot brutalizing toddlers] UP

It’s long history of unequivocal success from top to bottom.

perhaps the SEC would like to look into his data supporting his claim, pay plan and stock rise... I do not understand the press and citizenry repeatedly paying attention to what pathological liars say. mElon has NEVER delivered a product on time EVER!

The projected sales figures are obviously bullshit but I assume the $20k price point is based on the Chinese robots you can buy for about $16k

Watch This New Robot Relax in the Creepiest Way Possiblegizmodo.com The new Unitree G1 has a rather unique way of folding up.

I mean, you can sell anything at any price you want! The $10k BOM/build cost and 100% profit margin is the sticky wicket on that end of things. And yeah, I'm guessing the market for $15k-$20k novelty robots isn't looking like it's headed for 1 billion units/year any time soon.

Bipedal robots with a "head" seem like toys by definition. If they're intended to be practical/mass consumption machines, then yeah - they're not going to look like C3PO.

My guess is that the optimal shape is something like a scorpion which might be a tougher sell.

Those robot dogs are super creepy but probably well-designed for their use case, which includes staying upright.

I saw one where they basically put a fluffy muppet body on it and… kind of want?

You get a lot of benefits from making machines people can intuitively understand, so adding a head to a bipedal robot isn’t the craziest thing imo. General-purpose bipedal robots that work remotely predictably are not within a five-year horizon.

Heh, when we got a new fancy robot at work, my (former) colleague took a video to show his young daughter Her first question: "where's its head" 😅

People at GM have at least once put eye stickers on them for the lols

now i am really curious about what products actually do hit the 1B+/yr mark

I had to google this, and this is an old article (from 2014), but apparently the best selling product of all time at that time (Sony PlayStation) only sold 344 Million units total. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/05/18/24-7-wall-st-the-best-selling-products-of-all-time/9223465/

okay, but, like, charmin ultra soft has to sell that much a year, right?

Google again! According to Wikipedia seven billion rolls of TP are sold a year - that’s individual rolls across all brands.

Bottled water is pretty much the #1 product by unit sales in every grocery and convenience store in America. Costco alone sells over half a billion cases a year. Which, in individual bottles is something like 20,000,000,000.

Probably. That’s P&G’s prime metric for an “A team” brand and they have at least a dozen or two brands that hit it. Pampers crossed it about 15 years ago I think.

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