Gil

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Gil

@redfishbluefish.bsky.social

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Coming back to Bluesky and you guys are all just yelling at NYT columnists? They’re right in this case, you know. Lot of groupthink on here imo
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i can assure you TV is really no different
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there are also clips of trump saying overturning row v. wade was good, that january 6 was amazing, talking about having sex with porn stars, etc.
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it's true that *of anything in this debate* the clips are what matter, that's always been true and in the past debates have basically not mattered
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My understanding is that many worlds alleges that there is a continuum of worlds with probability weight, not that there are discrete worlds we can count. But yeah, I take it most physicists don’t care
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Are you a many worlds interpretation guy? From the little I know that’s the only one that seems sensible
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I would be in favor of NYT replacing focus groups with AI focus groups. Would be more obvious why it's ridiculous
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Some state polling has come in, and I’ve also thought more about crosstabs stuff, that has made me update toward Biden from what I was thinking before. This model is dumb though and doesn’t change my opinion
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Yeah I both think tails are way too big and the underlying model is too Biden friendly
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Nope. New majority in the legislature de facto controls prime minister slot who sets domestic policy while president sets foreign policy, no veto power for president.
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hypotheses for why he is doing this: -people will be shocked after RN (Le Pen)'s performance in EU elections and coalesce around Macron -Le Pen will get to govern for 2 years, people will see how bad she is and vote Macron back in. (A very stupid plan)
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sorry not vote Macron back in but the successor in his party.
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Yup. Someone pointed out his overconfidence is consistent with his history as an investment banker
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Best hypothesis is that this is Paul Hindenburg logic
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Where does Trump appeal to? Could it make it up to federal courts or would it stay solely to state courts?
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So indeed, nobody in his position has ever went to jail (Jk jk but I mean people with no previous record)
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The precedent is that most people in his position don’t get thrown in jail! I think there is chance of this because of how much he attacked the judge, but the blind prior should be going the opposite direction
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Merchan made exceptions for Trump as a presidential candidate. That alone is noteworthy.
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Reposted byAvatar Gil
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Stuff like this is why I’m skeptical though, not a priori
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I did not think 1 but do think 2*
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FWIW I did not think 1 and think 2, although not super confidently, p(prison sentence) is probably like 0.3
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Stuff like this is why I’m skeptical though, not a priori
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I wonder if the debates were scheduled early specifically for this
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Still time for him to serve a 6 month sentence before assuming presidency. Please do this judge it would be so good and AFAICT wouldn’t raise constitutional issues
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I was low key panicking about this before he was struck
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My guess is that the prosecutor is not caught up on election trends and didn’t realize how R Hispanics have gotten
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He said “I like Trump because he makes things interesting” and also said that he got his news from X (not Twitter), pretty concerning
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Old Puerto Rican man, some college education, looked pretty bad