lowtax speedrun enjoyer: any idea what’s driving this? i know crime has generally been coming down from the spike a few years ago but this is a *wild* drop

any idea what’s driving this? i know crime has generally been coming down from the spike a few years ago but this is a *wild* drop

And speaking of Baltimore, I'm sure my followers are waiting on pins and needles for my latest update on our astonishing fall in homicides. The wait is over! 😏

like is larry hogan a serial killer or…?

I have a theory. There’s like 5 separate entities of the criminal justice system in Maryland and it takes a competent administration to coordinate them. Both Brandon Scott and Michael Harrison complained that under Hogan no one was getting notified when someone cut their ankle monitor for instance

Well his chief of staff did Suicide by Cop thehill.com/homenews/sta...

thehill.com

The Roy McGrath story is the most insane story ever that nobody talks about

i think it was the bridge

Still waiting for Hogan to be asked this (or something similar) for the first time after 18 straight months of falling crime that started the nanosecond he left office

A new crime reduction policy is part of it, I think. Also, perhaps, our Consent Decree might be bearing fruit at last. www.baltimorepolice.org/news/bpd-see...

BPD sees dramatic decrease in multiple crime categories for April 2024www.baltimorepolice.org BPD is pleased to announce that April 2024 marked several significant successes in the crime fight.

Here's the bad old days. (I wonder what effect the arrest of an insanely corrupt squad of police had on the police's unwillingness to admit that they had a problem.) www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/balt...

Perspective | Baltimore tried reforming the police. They fought every change.www.washingtonpost.com The last five years are a warning for efforts to tinker around edges of law enforcement now.

One last piece: www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/ne...

Baltimore mayor touts Comprehensive Violence Prevention Plan for decrease in crimeswww.cbsnews.com In a crowded room, Scott said homicide numbers are now down more than 30%. Meanwhile, non-fatal shootings are down more than 20%.

In some ways, the fact that we went through the death of Freddie Gray years before BLM matters: our police officers already passed through stages like Anger, Denial, and Bargaining, and are closer to Acceptance (or the need to change, and the fact that people who say this are not just cop-haters.)

I remember it took the FBI to sorta clean up the Schenectady NY cops. Just the most venal and corrupt POS I ever had the displeasure of dealing with repeatedly. Openly crooked and always drunk.

FWIW homicides in DC are also down 26% this year so far, so Baltimore-specific explanations might not give the whole picture

Everyone got plum tuckered out

This is part of it

Mayor Scott Announces GVRS Expansion to Fourth Districtmayor.baltimorecity.gov Mayor Brandon M. Scott officially announced the expansion of Baltimore's Group Violence Reduction Strategy (GVRS) into the Baltimore Police Department's (BPD) Eastern District.

Fun one for the correlation/causation crowd: this is happening both while there’s a years long officer shortage and where the mayor flat out refused the States Attorney’s call to heavily police quality of life crimes

the more i read about policing the more convinced i am that we just flat-out do it wrong. and i don't even just mean the militarization of recent decades - just sociologically

obviously not the only factor but the start of the divergence seems to line up very well with legal cannabis taking effect in maryland in summer 23. throw in a full employment economy and a mayor who isn’t a complete shithead on crime and cops

i have no idea just wanted to say this is a really weird way to present this data imo

you thinking yoy changes with a 0 y-axis?

feel like a bar graph would work better?

oh maybe. although i think the gap is so big that the presentation still works

This chart shows the changes in run rate throughout each year as well. That additional dimension of context that is lost with a bar chart

oh yeah forsure you'd lose the tail end of 2023 which seems important

One other thing not yet mentioned in your replies that helps explain the overall fall of homicide is that Shock Trauma and the doctors have gotten better and better at saving lives. Shot victims don’t become homicides as readily. But it doesn’t explain the one and two year drop that a policy might

Nonfatal shootings are also down 30% year over year through June in Baltimore (homicides down 36%). The vast majority of the homicide decline is from fewer shootings, though Baltimore did invent shock trauma and we are very good at it

Dropping below pre-COVID numbers is pretty insane. Portland's murder rate is dropping too but is still much higher than 2019. Whatever is happening, good for Baltimore and I hope it continues

Criminal justice reform takes a while to show results. Was there a major reform bill that was passed in 2021 or 2022?

maybe? no idea tbh

I was ready to credit the polar vortex but it looks like the trend broke hard June 23. Some of the articles show that not just homicides but most violent crime is down 20-30% in 24. It looks like it's been slowing down even more in recent months.

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