Rob Ford

@robfordmancs.bsky.social

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Politics Professor, University of Manchester.
Author of "Brexitland" and "The British General Election of 2019"
My Substack, "The Swingometer", is here: https://swingometer.substack.com/
https://www.robertford.net/

Posts Replies Media

Off on a holiday soon featuring some long train journeys. Therefore in the market for some books to read. Anyone got any good recommendations? My interests are pretty broad - politics (obvs), history, SF, quality fiction, biography (esp political bios)

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Rob Ford

Former listeners to the Ballot Box podcast might be pleased to know that we've returned to do an episode on the UK election podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/bal...

Labour's disproportional landslide, or Keir of the House Starmer, First of his name... by The Ballot Box: Elections Around the Worldpodcasters.spotify.com We have returned for a special look at the UK's dramatic 2024 election, which saw Labour win a landslide majority on a record low share of the vote and Ed Davey humiliate himself for attention. Featu...

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Rob Ford

It's easy to sneer at the 'Biden should stay' people but perhaps a better question is to ask 'what is the actual mechanism the Biden should go people have, and if they don't have one, is it dumb as fuck to keep talking about it?'

Noted election winner Stacey Abrams

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Rob Ford

Reply to

Stephen Bush

Reform standing is really important if you are, basically, Conservative MPs number 122 through to 150, their families and their staff. Also important that one of the MPs who would have saved their seat without Reform is Penny Mordaunt, who would have won the leadership election comfortably.

My older half brother (much older - 70!) is currently half way up Kilimanjaro to raise money for Alzheimer’s society - helping families cope with this devastating condition.Cause close to my heart as my mum suffered with it for many years. The climb is a tribute to her & other lost family members.

My latest bit for the Observer looks at the risks remaining for Labour as polling day approaches www.theguardian.com/politics/art...

A wobbly left and a wary right could cut the Labour vote with low turnout | Robert Fordwww.theguardian.com Labour may currently have a commanding lead, but a second lacklustre half to the campaign could lead some voters to stay at home, writes political scientist Robert Ford

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Rob Ford

‘We find that the public is relatively open to the concept of total electoral obliteration for the Conservatives.’ - pfdatablog.com/blog/how-doe... h/t @robfordmancs.bsky.social

How does the public feel about a Tory Wipe-Out — Public First - Datapfdatablog.com

Quick plug for yesterday's Swingometer looking at where we are in the polls, halfway through the campaign: open.substack.com/pub/swingome...

The half time verdictopen.substack.com Three weeks down, three to go, what do the voters think?

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Rob Ford

@robfordmancs.bsky.social do you have any data for the number of HoL members who are 75 & over? They'd all have to retire during a 5-year Labour government.

Lords would have to retire at 80 under Labour plans

Lords would have to retire at 80 under Labour planswww.bbc.com Sir Keir Starmer has promised to "modernise" the Lords with new rules and by phasing out hereditary peers.

New Swingometer post - almost exactly halfway through the campaign. Has anything changed? A look at the key polling indicators here open.substack.com/pub/swingome...

The half time verdictopen.substack.com Three weeks down, three to go, what do the voters think?

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Rob Ford

"A new restaurant can produce an eyecatching menu, but it won't succeed if the chef has health and safety violations and there's a fire in the kitchen."

The doom is getting doomier. My look at the polling for Sunak and Conservatives for the Observer www.theguardian.com/politics/art...

Rishi Sunak’s chances were always slim. And the numbers just get worsewww.theguardian.com Polls show longstanding Tory advantages on issues such as immigration, crime and defence are gone, while Labour opens new leads in traditional areas

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Rob Ford

“Four in 10 of those polled said they thought it would be a good thing if the coming election entirely obliterated the Conservatives”

The doom is getting doomier. My look at the polling for Sunak and Conservatives for the Observer www.theguardian.com/politics/art...

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Rob Ford

Nigel Farage's Election Bid Means There “Are No Safe Tory Seats Anymore” Expert Paula Surridge believes the impact of Farage's move on Conservative prospects is “almost infinitely large" @robfordmancs.bsky.social says a "meteor" could be coming for the Tories www.politicshome.com/news/article...

Nigel Farage's Election Bid Means There “Are No Safe Tory Seats Anymore”www.politicshome.com The potential negative impact of Nigel Farage entering the campaign on the Conservatives’ electoral chances is “almost infinitely large”, according to leading election experts Paula Surridge and Rob F...

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Rob Ford

What I think is interesting is, basically, we *know* that the Labour party did worse in Bassetlaw than similar constituencies because of Typical Labour Behaviour in a selection. Due to changes in how the media works, Typical Labour Behaviour has a larger and wider audience now.

This isn't news :p But I'm not sure it'll particularly harm the party in this election - longer term perhaps

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Rob Ford

Just a campaign based around ignoring everything the last 20 years have shown about what a successful Conservative election campaign involves: www.ft.com/content/2971...

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Rob Ford

The UK general election as told through the medium of push notifications from the most important news app: the BBC News app. Been doing this on Twitter given this place is in general more chatty, but here goes: 🧵

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Rob Ford

"You start on the Death Star, Monday morning. But it's only 24 weekends a year and it isn't compulsory. I don't think. Or you can transfer the hours to the voluntary sector. Also, I think. The details are *very* hazy at this point."

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Rob Ford

"don't worry, Prime Minister, today we have you speaking at a local gardening business"

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Rob Ford

Reply to

Stephen Bush

Is convinced that this record of delivery - a record that is thinner than what Truss *in 49 days and while causing a financial crisis* managed with the sadly abandoned deals for metro-mayors and the growth plan! - is SO GOOD that he was the co-author of two irresponsible fiscal events to stay as PM.

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Rob Ford

I sort of admire Rishi Sunak. Has taken the country backwards on maths to 18. Is too incompetent to do his smoking pledge. Basically has never succeeded on a project requiring prime ministerial buy-in. Still running for re-election:

UK election latest: Sunak’s flagship smoking ban dropped ahead of electionwww.ft.com Only a handful of bills will make it on to the statute book before the parliamentary session ends on Friday

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Rob Ford

Jamelle is joking, but I strongly believe this, for reasons closely linked to the failure of American money to create a US men's team that can even reliably get into the last eight of the World Cup. The primary process has downsides, but it also better controls for 'actually being good at politics'

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Rob Ford

This is just how the Tory party rulebook works. Akin to Channel 4 “discovering” that a small group of Labour office-holders select candidates in retirement seats.

The Omnishambles continues. Channel 4 News has discovered Conservative HQ has emailed asking for candidates in almost 100 seats. Any potential candidates have been told it’s a 48-hour deadline to get selected. Local parties understandably livid.

Going to be a busy 6 weeks for all politicos - here's some crunchy election history stats to kickstart your campaign: open.substack.com/pub/swingome...

Apropos of nothing in particular, writing of “The British General Election of 2024” - latest in Nuffield election series covering every GE since 1945 - is underway, with same Fab 4 as BGE 2019 at helm: @drjennings.bsky.social @timbale.bsky.social @psurridge.bsky.social and myself. Watch this space…

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Rob Ford

Reply to

Revan

One of my personal favorites in the deflation ouvre is when it manifests in video game economies and sends everyone back to bartering systems kotaku.com/new-worlds-e...

New World's Economy Is So Busted, Players Are Bartering For Itemskotaku.com Players are hoarding money and trading for goods as a deflation crisis hits Amazon’s MMO

It is a deeply unreasonable position and yet many of the foundations of our political system (in particular the stability of the party system) are built on a substantial share of the populace thinking link this.

Even if you regard your political affiliation as primarily about identity, it’s extremely strange to think that your identity will never change & will forever be immune to any kind of moral evaluation. A deeply unreasonable position.

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Rob Ford

I think a lot about the present day Conservative party is best illustrated with reference to the Labour party after 1970: a party that doesn't think its most recent time in government has gone well but doesn't have an obvious *outside* culprit to blame.

What is sort of interesting about that piece, at least to someone like me who is not privy to the “thinking” of Tory party activists, is that it explains Sunak’s “change” reset. But, lads, c’mon, you’ve been in charge for 32 of the last 45 years, and your assumptions were hegemonic in the other 13.

Totally agree we should have more psephologists and social sciences on election broadcasts. And on TV more generally.

Rewatching the BBC's 1979 general election. What a loss Robert McKenzie was, both as a broadcasting talent, but also because having two psephologists on air and not just one is a far superior way to present what is ultimately a *social science*, and not holy writ from A Top Boffin.

Election 1979 Part 1/6www.youtube.com election 1979

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Rob Ford

2002: kinda creepy that everything we put on the internet is there forever 2024: i wish i could read anything I wrote before 2015 3024: we call the period from 1900-2100 “the dark ages” as paper had acid in it and later they trusted their writing to something called a cloud. Very little is known.

New report from Pew finds 38% of webpages that existed in 2013 are no longer accessible a decade later. This research underscores how critical web archiving efforts are. www.pewresearch.org/data-labs/20...

When Online Content Disappearswww.pewresearch.org A quarter of all webpages that existed at one point between 2013 and 2023 are no longer accessible.