Still stuck in a holding pattern. This one, from one of the pollsters that finds a higher number of Conservatives, shows them at best becalmed.
FWIW this poll's findings mirror my mental image of the par vote shares at the next election. (There's no particular reason why I'd be right, of course.)
I'm 3/4 of the way through writing something on this but... fundimentally I see no reason for the polling to change until the election is called. Think it'll be a 20% lead holding pattern till then
After the range of reasons we've had them this Parliament (from "fuck this shit I am out" to "actual paedophile" to "tractor guy") I refuse to rule anything out on that front.
Also this is the first parliament we've had defections that are, whether you are cynical about their motives or not, defections that are very much 'I am going to damage Sunak on the way out', can't rule out an MP in LD facing territory going 'eh, I can't stand him' and quitting either.
He's got so many more chances to annoy them as well! A defection might have a smaller impact on the polls for the LDs than a by-election, but any chance to remind voters they exist surely isn't bad for them.
Yeah - and I think frankly either is an option we can't rule out, not least as the 'what is the maximum way to cause damage?' calculation is different for different MPs. (i.e. ironically, Chris Skidmore, a much more moderate Tory MP, choosing to quit parliament early in Labour facing territory)
Funniest result would be Stephen Hammond defecting to the Liberal Democrats then announcing that he would do the "honourable thing" and resign to contest the seat at a by election while still standing down at the general. Imagine the leaflets - "of course it doesn't matter, vote for spite!"
Pretty much everywhere has been selected for so while not impossible, it's not that likely, not least as the other variable is 'people who Labour MPs and the local party would vouch for' is another dynamic.
Skidmore could have taken the Wakeford route and in many ways it would be the same trajectory (sole Tory vote on Labour motions on an issue they really care about becomes Labour MP) and I think could have had a seat found for him given that.
Might be worth thinking about the situations that might move the polling. In no particular order: the economy feels better; Rwanda is a ‘success’; Farage leads the Reform campaign; the election campaign itself. I can’t imagine the net sum of these being better than neutral to negative for the Cons.
Looking at these, and this might be my own blindness, I just see a list of things for Rishi Sunak to badly explain to voters. "The economy is definitely better you morons/we paid them £3000 each you know" etc
Also the economy has improved quite a bit! For much of this parliament, the relationship between Labour’s poll rating and the underlying condition of the UK was pretty exact, but that came undone around the autumn of 2022 at the latest I think.
You need to consider what situations might make some of the political story about Labour rather than the Conservatives.
The Tories' best hope is that Labour become shopsoiled in some way.
In related news good to see Stephen’s newsletter today re the looming university disaster. Not sure people realise how big a decent sized university is these days - say 20k students and 5k staff. Obviously devastating for all concerns including the local community with huge news value.
I think we're in a vibecession on the economy now - people won't be willing to believe it is improving.
People have quite fixed ideas about things like "what a pint should cost" that they're just stuck on.
Didn't help Hunt and Sunak promising (lying) prices would go down when inflation went down.
there were issues with Wakeford but he had time and has won over the local party and therefore selected for the GE not just by default. I would imagine Labour only want those standing down, if rumours happen today - Will Quince ?? Essex MP, Ex minister, seen as more moderate and stepping down
