Still stuck in a holding pattern. This one, from one of the pollsters that finds a higher number of Conservatives, shows them at best becalmed.
FWIW this poll's findings mirror my mental image of the par vote shares at the next election. (There's no particular reason why I'd be right, of course.)
I'm 3/4 of the way through writing something on this but... fundimentally I see no reason for the polling to change until the election is called. Think it'll be a 20% lead holding pattern till then
After the range of reasons we've had them this Parliament (from "fuck this shit I am out" to "actual paedophile" to "tractor guy") I refuse to rule anything out on that front.
Also this is the first parliament we've had defections that are, whether you are cynical about their motives or not, defections that are very much 'I am going to damage Sunak on the way out', can't rule out an MP in LD facing territory going 'eh, I can't stand him' and quitting either.
He's got so many more chances to annoy them as well! A defection might have a smaller impact on the polls for the LDs than a by-election, but any chance to remind voters they exist surely isn't bad for them.
Yeah - and I think frankly either is an option we can't rule out, not least as the 'what is the maximum way to cause damage?' calculation is different for different MPs. (i.e. ironically, Chris Skidmore, a much more moderate Tory MP, choosing to quit parliament early in Labour facing territory)
Funniest result would be Stephen Hammond defecting to the Liberal Democrats then announcing that he would do the "honourable thing" and resign to contest the seat at a by election while still standing down at the general. Imagine the leaflets - "of course it doesn't matter, vote for spite!"
Pretty much everywhere has been selected for so while not impossible, it's not that likely, not least as the other variable is 'people who Labour MPs and the local party would vouch for' is another dynamic.
Skidmore could have taken the Wakeford route and in many ways it would be the same trajectory (sole Tory vote on Labour motions on an issue they really care about becomes Labour MP) and I think could have had a seat found for him given that.
there were issues with Wakeford but he had time and has won over the local party and therefore selected for the GE not just by default. I would imagine Labour only want those standing down, if rumours happen today - Will Quince ?? Essex MP, Ex minister, seen as more moderate and stepping down
I don't think we'll see any defectors to LDs, the party isn't doing well enough in the polls or media to be an attractive proposition (I think this will change after the GE when we are likely to get 3rd party status back)
Even for someone planning to leave elected politics joining Labour feels like joining a winning team and will offer opportunities for future influence + work which joining the LDs doesn't. The only candidate would be someone like Noakes but if she was going to she'd have done it already.
I think the push is more important than the pull here, frankly. If you're in an LD-facing area and you want to really slam the door on Sunak's fingers, this is a good way to do it.
I guess if an election is imminent you wouldn't issue a writ, but if the increasingly-likely prospect that Sunak will run out the clock to Jan 25 turns out to be true, yeah, still plenty of time.
There was, as I recall, a minor furrowing of brows over whether the warrant that the Speaker was ordered to issue for a writ of election *could* be cancelled. A novel motion had to be drafted and agreed - issuing a writ of supersedeas to the CotC.
It was a novel procedure as far ad I recall
