you can reweight this stuff if you assume that the people who are not responding to the calls are uncorrelated with their polling answers. but if it's correlated, then you're measuring your instrument, not the thing you're measuring. i don't know how you fix that with phone polls.
You don't. You're obliged to turn to a different metric, like election results, but that's not going to give you a reliable gauge given the small sample sets
I’m gonna shout “I can weight my way out of anything!” from now on whenever my wife gives me that look she reserves for when I order a meal for myself that is meant to serve 6
There was a battleground panel poll in 2016 that had wild movement depending on whether a single Trump supporting black guy in Detroit was in the sample that week
we have measurements! they're called elections! they have normal variations year to year, even in times like this. what they're showing would be like if every measurement of something was 1 ± .2 and someone came in and was like "my new measurement show's it's 10".
Plus just…the baseline is the last election because it was between the same two guys. What’s the argument for the electorate having changed so enormously in this way? It goes so against my perceived experience that I need an explanation.
maybe you can argue that 2024 is totally different, but we have exit polls from the midterms and they were broadly consistent with 2020 and 2018. i mean, there's variability, but there isn't "the black vote is now split" level realignment.
Yeah, why have special elections gone how they have, and why would the people that have made them go as they have somehow be ok with letting Trump win?
I think the poll I answered in 2020 was from a 1-800 or 1-888 number. I usually don't answer unknown numbers, but that call somehow looked official enough that I did.
like i generally try to find the most parsimonious explanation that aligns with the most data points but it just feels very, very hard right now to bring election polling, special/midterm results, issue polling, economic sentiment, and economic indicators all into alignment
i’m well past the point where i have no idea where we are, where we’re going, what good strategy would be, and so on. flying completely blind on this from top to bottom.
I thjnk one of the most underrated stories of the election cycle is how every poll indicates Trump is making historic gains with voter demographics long hostile to the Republican Party while in every GOP primary he leaked 20-30% of the primary electorate to a candidate who’d dropped out
Maybe flipping back and forth on these pictures is fucking with my head but is this estimating that 50% of registered voters who did not vote in the 2020 election are voting for Trump? Meaning they are either very young or 2020 wasn’t enough to get them excited to vote but somehow 2024 is?
