JUST IN: Polls closed in France. Exit polls show surprise:
—Left coalition (New Popular Front) projected first. (!)
—Far-right (RN) has lost its bid to take power. Anti-RN front appears to have worked very well.
—No bloc close to majority.
Follow this 🧵 for results and more:
The 2nd leading pollster projects a similar result—if anything a higher range for the Left coalition.
This wld be a much stronger result than expected for the Macron bloc.
If confirmed, key takeaway: Left & Macronist voters transferred onto each other much more than expected. Clear anti-RN front.
OUTGOING Assembly for context:
—Macronists: 249. (New exit polls: 150-180)
—Left bloc: 131. (New exit polls: 170-220)
—Far-right: 89. (New exit polls: 120-155)
—LR/conservatives: 64 (Exit polls: 65-80)
Today will be a record high *by far* for far-right. But also a lot less than it hoped.
So, Q now is: No one is close to 289. Now what...?
Olivier Faure, head of socialist party (PS, most center-left party of Left coalition), just spoke to say he'd stay faithful to the New Popular Front platform.
(Context: expect Macronists to pressure PS to join & drop LFI).
RESULT: Francois Hollande, the former president from 2012 to 2017 (a center-left figure who alienated his left & named Macron to his Cabinet, but just ran with the Left coalition) has WON.
This was a 3-way runoff: Hollande got 43%, with 31% for the RN & 26% for LR.
What's happening RIGHT NOW on TV: something very familiar in countries with a full parliamentary regime — fight over coalitions.
Macronists + center-right arguing this isn't a Left win; suggesting a center-left to center-right unity gov.
Left insisting this is a Left win. How united will it be?
OH, a big result: Marine Le Pen's *sister* has LOST her bid to join Parliament. She led 40% to 26% in Round 1.
Her left opponent won by 0.5%.
(Macronist, who came in 3rd, initially said she wouldn't drop out but then changed her mind. Ended up blocking Le Pen.)
Where I'm at right now on the big board:
Left bloc: 75
Macron bloc: 44
RN/far-right bloc: 83
LR/right: 16
Other left: 4
Other right: 6
Others: 6
REMAIN: 343. (Long way to go!)
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Gabriel Attal, sitting PM, is now speaking.
He says, "this dissolution [=snap election call], I didn't choose it." Veiled criticism of Macron, given a lot of reporting on Attal not knowing about Macron's decision, & doing a lot more than Macron to block far-right this week.
Attal says he will resign as Prime Minister.
This is not surprising: Macronists did a lot better than they were fearing—but they will lose a lot of seats. They're no longer in a position to govern by themselves (or nearly by themselves since 2002) like they have since 2017.
RECAP:
—Exit polls 90 minutes ago showed surprise: Left first; Macronists 2nd; RN third.
—Since then, results in from many districts. They're confirming that big picture.
—And show why: Stronger than expected transfers from Left voters to Macronists, & vice-versa, to block RN.
Speaking right now: Eric Ciotti.
Remember him? He was head of LR/right a month ago, when he unilaterally decided to ally with RN/far-right. His party rushed to throw him out.
He won reelection. But a big loser tonight since he threw away his leadership but didn't win power.
What could have happened today if more candidates who came in 3rd had refused to drop out?
Hint of an answer in the city of Aix.
Here, the Macronist candidate refused to drop out. As a result, no front vs the far-right. Result:
RN wins with 37%. Left at 36%. Macronists 27%.
Here's what's up right now on French TV: Lots of politicians are fighting, & it's complicated to figure out what's going on.
This level of fragmentation in Parliament just has not happened under this constitutional regime, designed in 1958; this is unprecedented territory.
To be more specific: The non-left parties are insisting that the parties *within* Left are so divided it's silly to think they can govern — while most Left leaders for now are insisting they could try. Final numbers still unknown anyway.
Lots of constitutional hand-wringing.
Big, symbolic flip for the Left: Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, an ultraconservative politician & former presidential candidate (*not* in the RN, though he's endorsed Le Pen's presidential bid in the past), was ousted in the greater Paris region.
He was an incumbent.
Yannick Jadot (the Green Party's presidential candidate in the 2022 presidential election) just said about what happened in this election: "Macron dissolved Macron."
Macron's party did a lot better today than it looked a few weeks ago; but they're set to lose ≈90-100 seats.
RESULT: Aurélien Rousseau wins as left candidate.
He is Macron's former health minister who resigned in protest in December, after Macron adopted an anti-immigration law with support of far-right MPs.
Macron reportedly maneuvered to defeat him this week (as I posted earlier this week).
We know 550 of 577 districts in France.
Left bloc: 188
Macron bloc: 149
RN/far-right bloc: 139
LR/right: 44
Other left: 8
Other right: 16
Others: 6
REMAINS: 27
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
