K. Chen: This is good but also kind of terrifying.

This is good but also kind of terrifying.

During his State of the Union address, President Biden will order the U.S. military to establish a port in Gaza so more humanitarian aid can reach Palestinians.

Biden to order US military to construct port in Gaza to increase aid flowwww.politico.com “We're not planning for this to be an operation that would require U.S. boots on the ground,” said a senior administration official.

RE: "terrifying"

Playing out a scenario here: the US says enough is enough and lands San Antonios full of aid on the Gazan shore. US Marines with tight rules of engagement guard the shipment to ensure it isn't looted. There is an incident and a marine enlistedis killed. What happens next?

USN/USMC is basically going to get to dress rehearse an entire amphibious assault minus the shooting part.

Navy command is probably rock-hard over getting to test whatever our modern portable harbor solution is

Folks, the United States has a lot of logistical capacity, the airdrops didn't stop the sea port plan, the sea port plan isn't what's stopping pressuring for a ceasefire, opening up land crossings, or funding UNRWA.

This is some weird variant of post hoc ergo propter hoc, before therefore instead of it.

Same basic fallacy as comparing the federal budgeting process to household finances, I think. It wouldn't make sense for an individual to keep handing out knives to one side of a fistfight while also sticking around to bandage any stab wounds on the other side, but governments are not individuals.

Tough to coherently model an institution as a rational actor when it's closer to being a fractal of principal/agent problems that has somehow gained sentience.

fingers crossed on that last

Yeah I'm not totally sure how they're going to pull this off, especially since we're precommitted to no "boots on the ground" (cue marines just up to their ankles in the Mediterranean)

SeaBees operating reaaaaaaaly big cranes just offshore. "Civilian" contractors

We will not stand for SeaBee erasure here

How do you build a pier/dock without going ashore? “We promise that the Army Corps of Engineers will temporarily step ashore but their feet will certainly remain wet”

There’s a lot of merchant marines who are commissioned officers

I love that we're doing this but I am extremely nervous about the possible bad outcomes.

correct

Pirates of the Caribbean rules

I was in Somalia. You don't do this and come out unscathed.

yeah that part worries me coming and going

No, there will be shots fired at them, almost assuredly

Like this is nice and all as a plan but this is over at the first Hamas sharpshooter

Mortars are easier.

Negotiations involving Hamas & the USA has been ongoing. So the admin has some idea whether Hamas wants the food to come in *for now* But very risky, yes

Famously trustworthy counter-party Hamas

Hamas does. Does every individual who is part of Hamas know this, agree, and understand what agreement looks like? Like, leaving aside whether Hamas the entity can be trusted, I'm guessing the number of hotheads who hate America > 0

I imagine, grimly, that that is part of the equation

Given the recent flour massacre it could just as easily be an IDF sniper

certainly a thing I am afraid of

We;re air dropping aid because we can't land Chinooks because Hamas will clip them, you understand that right

My honest answer here is that there's specific tactical considerations to this I haven't thought of because it's not my job to, and I have to assume everything I can think of has been anticipated by USN/USMC general staff. All we have is a barest snippet of news and no details.

That's part of it, but also you can get more aid on the ground faster by rolling it out the back of a C-130/C-17 with a parachute.

if the Z's dont first.... 👆🏼

It's possible is some sort of carrot for a ceasefire, and wont actually happen until it goes through.

All the other more important considerations aside, you know some Marine general staff sickos are absolutely PUMPED about the training aspect of this plan. Best day of their career possibly.

With a non-zero chance of being followed by their worst.

Well, hopefully minus the shooting part. At least minus the “high-quality missiles and other defenses an adversary would have”

Kind of wondering why doing this by sea is better. When I suggested US trucks the objection was (maybe fairly) that Hamas will no scope a marine on video and we’ll get into a war. But how is this different?

I honestly think a lot of the benefit is bypassing Israeli border controls and the politics involved. Same with respect to Egypt at the south. Also boats move so much more tonnage.

Those are factors but none deal with that greater issue. I guess that means the crisis is such that we’re willing to risk it to get aid in

It also leaves out the, in my opinion higher, risk that someone on the Hamas (or IJ, ISIS, etc. similar entity in Gaza) side kills a bunch of Marines. Along the lines of the suicide bomber during the withdrawal from Afghanistan, if not the Lebanon barracks bombing.

That's more or less exactly what I was imagining as possibility?

Or worse, someone ambiguously connected to the Hamas

Yeah honestly that's the big one for me. I would guess Hamas doesn't want that heat, but PIJ?

Yup, or just someone within Hamas who hates the US more than they like their organization.

Don’t discount the possibility of US forces getting shot/shelled/bombed by IDF either because of fog of war or otherwise

iran or any proxy

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