my steelman reply is that the realistic best case scenario for American democracy involves a constitutional crisis in the next 8 years where SCOTUS issues an unconstitutional ruling and a Dem Pres+Congress say "no", and Dems need to make sure that the public is on their side when this happens
Aren't Alito & Thomas the two oldest justices? Hasn't Thomas been in & out of the hospital the past few years? I could have sworn I read Alito had a documented heart problem.
Thomas is 76, Alito is 74, their life expectancy per SS actuarial tables is 10 and 11 years, respectively. You can argue about heart problems etc but OTOH they are both rich and have excellent health and I think neither of them is a smoker, so it would be higher.
and then - Dems would need *both* to die and they would have to control Pres+Senate when *both* died and also Rs can't control Pres+Senate between now and then because they can strategically retire!
Thomas's mother AND father are both still living, and parental lifespan is the #1 predictor for one's own. I am not saying he's fit as a fiddle, but he's very likely to stick around for an intolerable number of years.
Crucial that Biden wins this year and that the next Dem wins in 2028. Both these guys will be in their 80s and then we would be oh so close to a 5-4 Dem court
FYI of the 15 justices appointed since Kennedy, not including the current court, only one (Fortas) died before the age of 80; Scalia, at 80, was the second-youngest to die, followed by Rehnquist (81) and Goldberg (82). The remaining 11/15 lived to the age of 85, and at least four made it to 90
(Also the added stress of their positions. not the job itself, but being constantly and righteously criticized. Stuff like that gives old assholes heart attacks)
