Brian Beutler

@brianbeutler.bsky.social

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Off Message; Formerly: Crooked Media, TNR, Salon, TPM; Instagram: @babeutler; facebook.com/beutlerbrian

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Brian Beutler

J.D. used to be all about clean energy. Then the oilmen came calling.

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Brian Beutler

🎯🔥🔥🔥

Third: something straightforward but very hard to grapple with is staring us in the face. I think a better path forward is there for the taking, but the worst path forward is to change nothing and hope swing voters come to their senses on their own. www.offmessage.net/p/taking-sto...

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Jonathan Bernstein

I’m see it a little differently. There are people Biden trusts and values, and others he resents and suspects. Consensus matters, but mostly among the former.

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Buttadeus

They think they can persuade him that it’d be in the best interests of his party and his historical legacy. And they’re correct on the merits.

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Buttadeus

Tell it to Nancy Pelosi, Adam Schiff, and the overwhelming majority of frontline Democrats who think you’re wrong.

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Buttadeus

A large and growing audience of subscribers? Not everyone has a childlike, bury-your-face-in-your-hands reaction to unpleasant realities.

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Second: We're living through the consequences of three years of Democrats ceding the information environment to Republican deception, and of a collective failure to recognize that the abdication stemmed in part from Biden's unique limitations. www.offmessage.net/p/taking-sto...

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Brian Beutler

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Brian Beutler

First: Donald Trump's victory in 2016 was basically an accident—an outgrowth of public complacency. A calamity, but with a clear lesson, which the country heeded in 2018, 2020, and 2022. Only recently have we slipped back into the pre-2016 pattern.

Taking Stock After Three Disorienting Weekswww.offmessage.net Things are mostly stable, but in a way that reinforces and exacerbates a losing dynamic.

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Brian Beutler

My attempt to take stock of the bleak political landscape after three disorienting weeks.

Taking Stock After Three Disorienting Weekswww.offmessage.net Things are mostly stable, but in a way that reinforces and exacerbates a losing dynamic.

My attempt to take stock of the bleak political landscape after three disorienting weeks.

Taking Stock After Three Disorienting Weekswww.offmessage.net Things are mostly stable, but in a way that reinforces and exacerbates a losing dynamic.

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Brian Beutler

If someone told you, "Many of America's top reporters spend a lot of their day in a chat room run by a 'great replacement' believing white supremacist and where many posters are Nazis" you'd be alarmed. That's basically the situation now.

I’ve said this a million times, but I’m genuinely frightened about what Musk’s fascist propaganda network is doing to do to our politics. I really wish someone, anyone, would come up with a collective strategy to get journalists, organizers and elected officials off the platform.

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Brian Beutler

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Brian Beutler

Thus, when you reach the conclusion that Biden doesn’t have a credible plan to build and grow a lead, the appeal of the swap becomes clear. www.offmessage.net/p/biden-desp...

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Brian Beutler

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Brian Beutler

Map on to today: Is Biden’s predicament in July 2024 as bad as McCain’s was in August 2008? Probably not quite, but close. Would swapping him out for any of the leading alternates be irresponsible by dint of inexperience and charlatanism. Not at all.

Desperate Times, Desperate Measures, And The Biden Questionwww.offmessage.net How to think about uncertainty when contemplating drastic action.

Thus, when you reach the conclusion that Biden doesn’t have a credible plan to build and grow a lead, the appeal of the swap becomes clear. www.offmessage.net/p/biden-desp...

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Brian Beutler

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Brian Beutler

Was McCain’s specific decision to pick Sarah Palin as a running mate reckless and civically destructive? Yes. Was his general inclination to shake up the race well founded? Also yes.

Desperate Times, Desperate Measures, And The Biden Questionwww.offmessage.net How to think about uncertainty when contemplating drastic action.

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Brian Beutler

A look back at the 2008 McCain campaign as an object lesson (and cautionary tale) about doing something drastic to turn around a losing strategy.

Desperate Times, Desperate Measures, And The Biden Questionwww.offmessage.net How to think about uncertainty when contemplating drastic action.

Was McCain’s specific decision to pick Sarah Palin as a running mate reckless and civically destructive? Yes. Was his general inclination to shake up the race well founded? Also yes.

Desperate Times, Desperate Measures, And The Biden Questionwww.offmessage.net How to think about uncertainty when contemplating drastic action.

A look back at the 2008 McCain campaign as an object lesson (and cautionary tale) about doing something drastic to turn around a losing strategy.

Desperate Times, Desperate Measures, And The Biden Questionwww.offmessage.net How to think about uncertainty when contemplating drastic action.

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Brian Beutler

If you're at Netroots Nation today, here's a panel you should check out. @importantmeagan.bsky.social @brianbeutler.bsky.social, @paulwaldman.bsky.social, and Stasha Rhodes will say smart things and I will say cranky things. It'll be great.

The Supreme Court is Donald Trump's real running mate. Democrats should act like it. (By me.) www.findinggravity.net/p/trumpthoma...

Trump/Thomas 2024www.findinggravity.net Nearly 30 years ago, Democrats chose a rhetorical running mate for their Republican opponent. That playbook could be the key to winning in 2024.

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Brian Beutler

For reasons I do not understand, most of the mainstream press reported that Trump “softened” the gop position on abortion based on a platform that declares abortion should be illegal in all 50 states www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

Stop Soft-Pedaling the GOP’s Extreme Positionswww.theatlantic.com The party’s platform on abortion and LGBTQ rights is just as radical as ever.

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Brian Beutler

New: If Biden’s going to gut this out, he needs an underdog’s plan to win despite creating a huge crisis of confidence within his own party. That basically never happens, except the time it happened famously just 8 years ago.

What A Biden Turnaround Might Look Likewww.offmessage.net Lessons from 2016.

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Brian Beutler

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Brian Beutler

The good news is the other two flanks are more easily replicable: They entail reminding base voters why they reliably vote D, and reminding swing voters why Trump is unfit for office by controlling the information environment in October. Doable. www.offmessage.net/p/what-a-bid...

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Brian Beutler

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Brian Beutler

The bad news: I can’t think of any slam-dunk ways for Biden to muddy Trump up with his own liability, the way Trump did by trotting around Bill Clinton’s accusers. www.offmessage.net/p/what-a-bid...

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Brian Beutler

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Brian Beutler

Crucially, Trump’s plan after Access Hollywood wasn’t simply to browbeat Republicans “get on board or shut the fuck up.” He also deployed a three-pronged strategy. www.offmessage.net/p/what-a-bid...

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Brian Beutler

(this has in all honesty been sanctioned by the Supreme Court, so I don't see why not...)