chatham harrison is tending a new garden: Strong economy + lessening inflation concerns + incumbency = people are really, really underrating Biden's chances (& I kinda suspect the fact that no credible candidate has made themselves available to be drafted in the past couple weeks means they know it too)

Strong economy + lessening inflation concerns + incumbency = people are really, really underrating Biden's chances (& I kinda suspect the fact that no credible candidate has made themselves available to be drafted in the past couple weeks means they know it too)

Consumers no longer expect elevated inflation as prices have cooled back to a normal pace of increase. *US 1-YR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS FELL TO 3% IN JUNE FROM 3.2% *US 3-YR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ROSE TO 2.9% IN JUNE AFTER 2.8% *US 5-YR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS FELL TO 2.8% IN JUNE AFTER 3%

Do you really want to change horses in midstream, immediately shoot the horses, have to swim to safety, and be stuck in the middle of nowhere with no transportation? Oh yeah. There are also werewolves on the loose.

That four years after Biden won the nomination and the presidency, none of these people have come up with a credible challenger or process to replace Biden (excluding Harris because she's already on the ticket) shows their fundamental lack of seriousness. They're panicked, bored, or malign.

Likely all three.

They figured all they had to do was snipe at him until he was so weak that ... uh ... someone will take care of the rest of it.

Also, people are expecting that Biden has to be top of mind when people vote. I fully reject that notion, we live in the age of negative partisanship. Spend the final days showing the stakes, the many horrible, bloody, painful stakes and they will fight against it.

You can't change candidates. Primaries are over. Westwing Fantasy Football makes us lose. Turn off MSNBC. Ignore the MSM. They're making bank from churn. It's 2016 redux & they want Dems infighting b/c it makes ledes. The real Dem base has Biden/Harris's back & early voting starts in September!

Agreed. Key states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan have early voting. We need to take advantage of that and raise voter turnout ourselves.

We are the cavalry. Join Indivisible or VoteRiders or any GOTV effort & go to IWILLVOTE-DOT-ORG to figure out your state's rules & if your name has been purged or your data is wrong so you can fix it now.

Good inflation news increases the likelihood the Fed starts cutting rates in September or October, too.

Look, at this point I will settle for them refraining from a rate hike

It also bears repeating that all the credible candidates are party stalwarts and know you don't ditch the incumbent or cause an intra party fight right before the election. Even Newsom isn't enough of an ambitious snake to cross that rubicon

Biden winning may be the funniest possible outcome, and that's a powerful omen

I think anxiety and the NYT grudge drove the first wave of reactions, but we’ve clearly reached a bored press corps doing offseason fantasy football trades as the main culprit

"Here's why that's bad news for Biden..."

Nobody knows

As a brit who has no position on biden, just wanted to say, sunak brought inflation back down but i dont think people cared. Until wage growth catches up its not enough.

Wage growth has exceeded inflation for almost all of the Biden Adminstration, especially in the lower two quintiles.

Fair enough, if it translates to improved living standards and he can successfully take credit for it. Over here, existing problems did not go away, and were swept up in an overall discontentment with living standards (everything is falling apart). Usual voters did not trust Sunak after everything.

Inflation made people angry, but it was only one factor that did so, and when it came down the anger remained and nobody was listening

Democrats haven't been in control for 15 years or overseen anything as poorly conceived and destructive as Brexit

Brexit is bad but sadly no public appetite for reversal. More anger from destroyed public services, house prices, nhs waiting lists. No idea what it is like over there for working class people.

Really, the people antsy about all the "replace Biden" stuff are just jumping at the shadows of what they themselves allowed in 2016. This *is* an existential threat because of their choices.

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